Crane Co (Crane Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Crane Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Crane Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Crane Co (Crane Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Crane Co (NYSE:CR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CZN:Germany

Address

100 First Stamford Place, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

https://www.craneco.com

Crane is a diversified industrial firm that manufactures a broad range of products, including valves, pumps, aerospace components, and fiberglass-reinforced plastic panels. Its business is organized into three segments: aerospace and electronics, process flow technologies, and engineered materials. Crane generated approximately $2 billion in revenue in 2022.

Executives

Max H Mitchell	officer: President & CEO	CRANE CO, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Richard A Maue	director, officer: Exec. V.P., CFO & PAO	C/O PAXAR CORPORATION, 105 CORPORATE PARK DRIVE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Marijane V. Papanikolaou	officer: V.P, Controller & CAO	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Jennifer Kartono	officer: SVP, CHRO	950 WINTER STREET 4TH FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Fund Crane	10 percent owner	C/O CRANE CO, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Paul Gerard Igoe	officer: SVP, General Counsel & Sec.	LYDALL, INC., ONE COLONIAL ROAD, MANCHESTER CT 06042
Sanjay Kapoor	director	C/O SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC., 3801 SOUTH OLIVER STREET, WICHITA KS 67210
William K Grogan	director	3100 SANDERS ROAD, SUITE 301, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Bianca B. Shardelow	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Cristen L Kogl	director	3 OVERLOOK POINT, LINCOLNSHIRE IL 60069
Tamara S. Polmanteer	officer: Exec. Vice President & CHRO	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Ronald Carter Lindsay	director	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902
Tullis James L L	director	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06907
Charles G Mcclure	director	55 CABOT PL, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Alejandro Alcala	officer: Executive Vice President	100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902