Corcept Therapeutics (Corcept Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Corcept Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Corcept Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Corcept Therapeutics (Corcept Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Corcept Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CORT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HTD:Germany

Address

149 Commonwealth Drive, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94025

Website

https://www.corcept.com

Corcept Therapeutics Inc is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery and development of medications that treat severe metabolic, oncologic and neuropsychiatric disorders by modulating the effect of the hormone cortisol.

Executives

Swisher Daniel N Jr	director	C/O SUNESIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 395 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
William Guyer	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Gary Charles Robb	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Joseph Douglas Lyon	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sean Maduck	officer: See Remarks	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
David L Mahoney	director	SYMANTEC CORPORATION, 20330 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., CUPERTINO CA 95014
Hazel Hunt	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Joseph K Belanoff	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Baker G Leonard Jr	director, 10 percent owner	755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Joshua M. Murray	director	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Atabak Mokari	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1212 TERRA BELLA AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gillian Cannon	director	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Gregg H Alton	director	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Kimberly Park	director	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andreas Grauer	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED, 149 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025