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Cannae Holdings (Cannae Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Cannae Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cannae Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cannae Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cannae Holdings (Cannae Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Cannae Holdings Inc (NYSE:CNNE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SG JACK FWRG CBRL EAT PTLO CAKE DIN BROS KRUS MCD SBUX CMG LSE:CPG YUM TSX:QSP.UN YUMC TSX:QSR DRI HKSE:06862
Traded in Other Exchanges
CQ2:Germany
Address
1701 Village Center Circle, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89134
Website
https://www.cannaeholdings.com
Cannae Holdings Inc is a holding company that manages and operates a group of companies and investments. The company's reportable segments are Restaurant Group, Dun & Bradstreet, Sightline, Paysafe, Alight, Corporate and Other Affiliate Elimination.
Executives
Richard N Massey director 900 S. SHACKLEFORD ROAD, SUITE 401, LITTLE ROCK AR 72211
Curley Charles R Jr. officer: EVP, General Counsel 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Ryan R. Caswell officer: President 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 89134
Peter T Sadowski officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC., 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Barry B Moullet director 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 89134
Bryan D. Coy officer: Chief Financial Officer 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 89134
David Aung director 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Frank R Martire director CANNAE HOLDING, INC., 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 89134
Michael L Gravelle officer: EVP, Corp. Sect'y & Genl. Coun 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Brent B Bickett officer: President FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC., 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Richard L. Cox officer: Executive Vice President 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Frank P Willey director 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 18934
Erika Meinhardt director 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 89134
Hugh R Harris director 1701 VILLAGE CENTER CIRCLE, LAS VEGAS NV 89134
Mark David Linehan director 5330 DEBBIE ROAD, SUITE 100, SANTA BARBARA CA 93111