Core Laboratories (Core Laboratories) Predictability Rank

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What is Core Laboratories Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Core Laboratories Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Core Laboratories (Core Laboratories) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Core Laboratories Inc (NYSE:CLB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6316 Windfern Road, Houston, TX, USA, 77040

Website

https://www.corelab.com

Core Laboratories is the premier provider of reservoir description and production enhancement services for oil and gas exploration and production. It provides data and analytics to aid well operators in determining optimal methods for recovering, processing, and refining hydrocarbons from a well. It also manufactures the associated lab equipment for its services.

Executives

Katherine Murray	director	6316 WINDFERN ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77040
Mark Damian Tattoli	officer: SVP, Gen Counsel & Secretary	C/O CORE LABORATORIES LP, 6316 WINDFERN ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77040
Kwaku Temeng	director	C/O CORE LABORATORIES LP, 2216 SHERIDAN STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Gwendolyn Schreffler	officer: SVP	C/O CORE LABORATORIES LP, 6316 WINDFERN ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77040
Harvey Robert Klingensmith	director	P.O. BOX 131144, HOUSTON TX 77219-1114
Van Dijken Eeuwijk Monique	director	P.O. BOX 129, BILTHOVEN P7 3720 AC
Jan Willem Sodderland	director	DUINDISTEL 89, NOORDWIJK P7 2202 DE
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Goldman Sachs & Co. Llc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Lawrence Bruno	officer: President	6316 WINDFERN ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77040
Mark F Elvig	officer: VP, Counsel & Secretary	6316 WINDFERN, HOUSTON TX 77040
Gregory Barry Barnett	director	853 MILWAUKEE STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Kevin Daniels	officer: CAO & Treasurer	6316 WINDFERN ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77040
Michael Straughen	director	68 RUBISLAW DEN NORTH, ABERDEEN X0 AB15 4AN
Martha Z. Carnes	director	6316 WINDFERN ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77040