The Carlyle Group (The Carlyle Group) Predictability Rank

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What is The Carlyle Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Carlyle Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Carlyle Group (The Carlyle Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » The Carlyle Group Inc (NAS:CG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CG:Mexico 3VU:Germany 3VU:Germany

Address

1001 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC, USA, 20004-2505

Website

https://www.carlyle.com

The Carlyle Group is one of the world's largest alternative-asset managers, with $382.3 billion in total assets under management, including $273.0 billion in fee-earning AUM, at the end of September 2023. The company has three core business segments: private equity, which includes private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources funds (accounting for 40% of fee-earning AUM and 64% of base management fees during 2023), global credit (46% and 25%) and investment solutions (14% and 11%). The firm primarily serves institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. Carlyle operates through 29 offices across five continents, serving more than 2,900 active carry fund investors from 88 countries.

Executives

Harvey M Schwartz	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC, 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
John C. Redett	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE NW, SUITE 220 S, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Jeffrey W. Ferguson	officer: General Counsel	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Andrews Charles Elliott Jr.	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Curtis L. Buser	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Christopher Finn	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Bruce M. Larson	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Sharda Cherwoo	director	160 WEST 66TH STREET, APT. 45F, NEW YORK NY 10023
David M. Rubenstein	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Mark S Ordan	director	7315 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE #250 WEST, BETHESDA MD 20814
Linda Filler	director	2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW, SUITE 800W, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Kewsong Lee	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Daniel A. D'aniello	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Founder, Chairman Emeritus	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Thomas S Robertson	director	200 CLARENDON STREET, T-33, BOSTON MA 02116
Peter J Clare	director, officer: Co-Chief Investment Officer