What is Constellation Energy Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Constellation Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Constellation Energy (Constellation Energy) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1310 Point Street, Baltimore, MD, USA, 21231
Constellation Energy Corp offers energy solutions. It provides clean energy and sustainable solutions to homes, businesses, the public sector, community aggregations, and a range of wholesale customers (such as municipalities, cooperatives, and other strategics). The company offers comprehensive energy solutions and a variety of pricing options for electric, natural gas, and renewable energy products for companies of any size.
Executives
| Charles L. Harrington |
director |
5875 TRINITY PKWY #300, CENTREVILLE VA 20120 |
| Laurie Brlas |
director |
C/O ALBEMARLE CORPORATION, 4250 CONGRESS ST STE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28209 |
| Julie Holzrichter |
director |
20 S. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| John M Richardson |
director |
10 S. DEARBORN STREET, 54TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603 |
| Bradley M Halverson |
director |
100 N.E. ADAMS STREET, PEORIA IL 61629 |
| Dhiaa M. Jamil |
director |
DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION, 550 SOUTH TRYON STREET - DEC45A, CHARLOTTE NC 28202 |
| Robert J Lawless |
director |
C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP, 1047 NORTH PARK ROAD, WYOMISSING PA 19610 |
| De Balmann Yves C |
director |
360 MADISON AVE 20TH FL, C/O BREGAL INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Khandpur K Ashish |
director |
3M COMPANY LEGAL AFFAIRS, 3M CENTER, ST PAUL MN 55144-1000 |
| Nneka Louise Rimmer |
director |
18 LOVETON CIRCLE, SPARKS MD 21152 |
| Michael Koehler |
officer: EVP & Chief Admin Officer |
1310 POINT STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21231 |
| Matthew N Bauer |
officer: SVP & Controller |
1310 POINT STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21231 |
| Kathleen Barron |
officer: EVP & Chief Strategy Officer |
1310 POINT STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21231 |
| David O. Dardis |
officer: EVP & General Counsel |
1310 POINT STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21231 |
| Daniel L. Eggers |
officer: EVP & CFO |
1310 POINT STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21231 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
CEG has been successfully added to your