CDW (CDW) Predictability Rank

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What is CDW Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CDW Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CDW (CDW) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CDW Corp (NAS:CDW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CDW:Germany C1DW34:Brazil

Address

75 Tri-State International, Lincolnshire, Chicago, IL, USA, 60069

Website

https://www.cdw.com

CDW Corp is a value-added reseller operating in the U.S. (95% of sales) and Canada (5%). The company has more than 100,000 products on its line of cards that range from notebooks to data center software. Roughly half of CDW's revenue comes from midsize and large businesses, with the remaining from small businesses, government agencies, education institutions, and health-care organizations.

Executives

Christina M Corley	officer: See Remarks	780 AEC DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Christine A Leahy	officer: See Remarks
Kelly J Grier	director	155 HARLEM AVE., GLENVIEW IL 60025
Donna F Zarcone	director	C/O HARLEY DAVIDSON, 3700 W. JUNEAU AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
Marc Ellis Jones	director	C/O GARDNER DENVER HOLDINGS, INC., 222 EAST ERIE STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Carolyn Wiesenhahn	officer: See Remarks	200 N. MILWAUKEE AVENUE, VERNON HILLS IL 60061
Peter R Locy	officer: See Remarks	200 N. MILWAUKEE AVENUE, VERNON HILLS IL 60061
Miralles Albert Joseph Jr	officer: See Remarks	151 N. FRANKLIN, CHICAGO IL 60606
Paul J Finnegan	director, 10 percent owner	PO BOX 2000, 3905 DAKOTA STREET SW, ALEXANDRIA MN 56308
Kebo Collin B.	officer: See Remarks	200 N. MILWAUKEE AVENUE, VERNON HILLS IL 60061
Frederick J. Kulevich	officer: See Remarks	200 N. MILWAUKEE AVENUE, VERNON HILLS IL 60061
Sanjay Mehrotra	director	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 3355 MICHELSON DRIVE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92612
Anthony R Foxx	director	2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
Ilaria Mocciaro	officer: See Remarks	2301 PATRIOT BLVD, GLENVIEW IL 60026
Matthew A. Troka	officer: See Remarks	200 N. MILWAUKEE AVENUE, VERNON HILLS IL 60061