Crescent Capital BDC (Crescent Capital BDC) Predictability Rank

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What is Crescent Capital BDC Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Crescent Capital BDC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Crescent Capital BDC (Crescent Capital BDC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Crescent Capital BDC Inc (NAS:CCAP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

487:Germany

Address

11100 Santa Monica Boulevard, Suite 2000, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90025

Website

https://www.crescentbdc.com

Crescent Capital BDC Inc is a business development company structured as an externally managed, closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. The company's primary investment objective is to maximize the total return to its stockholders in the form of current income and capital appreciation through debt and related equity investments. It will seek to achieve its investment objectives by investing in secured debt (including senior secured, unitranche, and second lien debt) and unsecured debt (including senior unsecured, mezzanine, and subordinated debt), as well as related equity securities of private U.S. middle-market companies.

Executives

Michael Scott Segal	director	C/O CRESCENT CAPITAL BDC, INC., 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Steven F. Strandberg	director	C/O CRESCENT CAPITAL BDC, INC., 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Strong George G. Jr.	director	C/O CRESCENT CAPITAL BDC, INC., 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Susan Y Lee	director	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
George Hawley	officer: Secretary	C/O CRESCENT CAPITAL GROUP LP, 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Gerhard Lombard	officer: Chief Financial Officer	600 FIFTH AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Erik G Barrios	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O CRESCENT CAPITAL GROUP, 299 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10171
Kirill Bouek	officer: Controller	10 HUDSON YARDS, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Joseph Hanlon	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O CRESCENT CAPITAL BDC, INC., 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Jason Breaux	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CRESCENT CAPITAL BDC, INC., 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Raymond Barrios	officer: Senior Vice President	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Watsa V Prem Et Al	10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON STREET WEST, SUITE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Elizabeth Ko	director	11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Allied World Assurance Co Holdings, Gmbh	10 percent owner	PARK TOWER, 15TH FLOOR, GUBELSTRASSE 24, ZUG V8 6300
Kathleen S Briscoe	director	GRIFFIN CAPITAL PLAZA, 1520 EAST GRAND AVENUE, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245