CBIZ (CBZ) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1995. Start your Free Trial

What is CBIZ Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CBIZ Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CBIZ Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CBIZ's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

CBIZ (CBZ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » CBIZ Inc (NYSE:CBZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XC4:Germany

Address

6801 Brecksville Road, Door N., Independence, OH, USA, 44131

Website

https://www.cbiz.com

CBIZ Inc through its subsidiaries provides professional business services. Its business units have been aggregated into three practice groups: Financial Services, Benefits and Insurance Services, and National Practices. The company provides its services to various industries such as Agribusiness, Agribusiness, SAAS, Construction, Health Care, Oil and Gas, Real Estate, Retail, Financial Institutions, and Government among others. It derives the majority of its revenues from the Financial Services segment and geographically from the United States.

Executives

Ware H Grove	officer: C.F.O.	6480 ROCKSIDE WOODS BLVD SOUTH, SUITE 330, CLEVELAND OH 44131
Benaree Pratt Wiley	director	C/O BNY MELLON INVESTMENT ADVISER, INC., 240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Joseph S Dimartino	director
Chris Spurio	officer: President, Financial Services
Michael P Kouzelos	officer: President, Employee Services	6050 OAK TREE BLVD SUITE 500, CLEVELAND OH 44131
Rodney A Young	director	350 OAK GROVE PARKWAY, SAINT PAUL MN 55127
Sherrill W Hudson	director	201 SOUTH BISCAYNE BOULEVARD, 34TH FLOOR, MIAMI CENTER, MIAMI FL 33131
Jerome P Grisko	director, officer: President and COO
Todd J Slotkin	director	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Richard T Marabito	director	5096 RICHMOND ROAD, BEDFORD HEIGHTS OH 44146
Steven L Gerard	director	P.O. BOX 554, MILWAUKEE WI 53201-0554
A Haag Sherman	director	600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 5900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Donald V Weir	director	SANDERS MORRIS HARRIS, 600 TRAVIS, HOUSTON TX 77002
Gina D France	director	III CASCADE PLAZA, AKRON OH 44308
Michael H Degroote	director	1111 INTERNATIONAL BLVD., BURLINGTON A6 L7L 6W1