Boyd Gaming (Boyd Gaming) Predictability Rank

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What is Boyd Gaming Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Boyd Gaming Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Boyd Gaming (Boyd Gaming) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Boyd Gaming Corp (NYSE:BYD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BO5:Germany

Address

6465 South Rainbow Boulevard, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89118

Website

https://www.boydgaming.com

Boyd Gaming Corp is a multi-jurisdictional gaming company. The company operates wholly owned gaming entertainment properties (casino space, slot machines, table games, and hotel rooms) in Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Its business segments are separated by geographical regions: Las Vegas Locals; Downtown Las Vegas; and Midwest and South. Midwest and South holds the largest number of entertainment properties, and it generates most sales for the company. Boyd generates most of its revenue from its gaming operations.

Executives

William S Boyd	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Executive Chair	2950 SOUTH INDUSTRIAL ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
William R Boyd	director, officer: Vice President	C/O BOYD GAMING CORPORATION, 6465 S. RAINBOW BOULEVARD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Marianne Boyd Johnson	director, officer: Executive Vice President
Stephen S. Thompson	officer: Executive Vice President	3883 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, NINTH FLOOR, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Christine J. Spadafor	director	3883 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, NINTH FLOOR, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Keith Smith	director, officer: President & CEO
Ted Bogich	officer: Executive Vice President	3883 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, NINTH FLOOR, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Josh Hirsberg	officer: Exec. V.P., Treasurer & CFO	C/O BOYD GAMING CORPORATION, 3883 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, NINTH FLOOR, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Lori M. Nelson	officer: SVP Fin Ops and Reporting	6465 S. RAINBOW BOULEVARD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Veronica J Wilson	director	C/O BOYD GAMING, 2950 INDUSTRIAL RD, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Uri Clinton	officer: EVP,General Counsel,Secretary	C/O MULTIMEDIA GAMES, INC., 206 WILD BASIN ROAD, BLDG. B, SUITE 400, AUSTIN TX 78746
Anthony D Mcduffie	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BOYD GAMING CORPORATION, 6465 SOUTH RAINBOW BLVD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
A. Randall Thoman	director	8360 S. DURANGO DR., LAS VEGAS NV 89113
John Robert Bailey	director	1106 PALMS AIRPORT DRIVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Paul W Whetsell	director	4501 NORTH FAIRFAX DRIVE, SUITE 800, ARLINGTON VA 22203