What is Better Choice Co Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Better Choice Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Better Choice Co (Better Choice Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
12400 Race Track Road, Tampa, FL, USA, 33626
Better Choice Co Inc is a pet health and wellness portfolio company, offering consumers a wide variety of recognized premium pet products and hemp-derived CBD supplements. Its portfolio includes kibble and canned dog and cat food, freeze-dried raw dog food and treats, vegan dog food and treats, oral care products, supplements and grooming aids. Its core products sold under the Halo brand are sustainably sourced, derived from real whole meat and no rendered meat meal and include non-GMO fruits and vegetables. Its core products sold under the TruDog brand are made according to nutritional philosophy of fresh, meat-based nutrition and minimal processing. The company manages its entire business in one operating segment.
Executives
| Michael Young |
director |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| Donald Young |
officer: EVP, Sales |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| Robert Sauermann |
officer: COO |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| Scott Lerner |
officer: CEO |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| Sharla A Cook |
officer: CFO |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| Word John M Iii |
director, 10 percent owner |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| Lionel F. Conacher |
director |
C/O DESTINATION XL GROUP, INC., 555 TURNPIKE STREET, CANTON MA 02021 |
| Arlene Dickinson |
director |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| Gil Fronzaglia |
director |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| Jeff D Davis |
director |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| Lori Taylor |
director |
12400 RACE TRACK ROAD, TAMPA FL 33626 |
| David Richard Lelong |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President |
70 WASHINGTON ST., APT. 6K, BROOKLYN NY 11201 |
| Michael S Morrow |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and President |
4791 S KINGS ROW DRIVE APT 23, SALT LAKE CITY X1 84117-5993 |
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