Boston Scientific (Boston Scientific) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1992. Start your Free Trial

What is Boston Scientific Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Boston Scientific Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Boston Scientific Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Boston Scientific's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Boston Scientific (Boston Scientific) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Boston Scientific Corp (NYSE:BSX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BSX:Mexico 1BSX:Italy BSX:Germany BSX:Germany BSX:Germany B1SX34:Brazil BSXC:Austria

Address

300 Boston Scientific Way, Marlborough, MA, USA, 01752-1234

Website

https://www.bostonscientific.com

Boston Scientific produces less invasive medical devices that are inserted into the human body through small openings or cuts. It manufactures products for use in angioplasty, blood clot filtration, cardiac rhythm management, catheter-directed ultrasound imaging, upper gastrointestinal tract diagnostics, interventional oncology, neuromodulation for chronic pain, and treatment of incontinence. The firm markets its devices to healthcare professionals and institutions globally. Foreign sales account for nearly half of the firm's total sales.

Executives

Joseph Michael Fitzgerald	officer: SVP & President, Endovascular	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Jeffrey B. Mirviss	officer: SVP&Pres, Periph Intervent	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Wendy Carruthers	officer: SVP, Human Resources	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Arthur C Butcher	officer: SVP&Pres, Endoscopy	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Michael F Mahoney	officer: President	BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Vance R Brown	officer: SVP, GC and Corp. Secretary	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Charles J Dockendorff	director	COVIDIEN LTD., 15 HAMPSHIRE STREET, MANSFIELD MA 02048
Susan E Morano	director	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Jessica L Mega	director	2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SUITE 800W, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Thepaut Eric Francis Yves	officer: SVP & Pres, Europe	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
John Bradley Sorenson	officer: SVP, Glob Ops & Qual	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Jonathan Monson	officer: VP, Corp Controller and CAO	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Daniel J. Brennan	officer: EVP and CFO	BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Nelda J Connors	director	BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Scott Olson	officer: SVP & Pres, Rhythm Management	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752