BellRing Brands (BellRing Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is BellRing Brands Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BellRing Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BellRing Brands (BellRing Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » BellRing Brands Inc (NYSE:BRBR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

D51:Germany

Address

2503 S. Hanley Road, St. Louis, MO, USA, 63144

Website

https://www.bellring.com

BellRing Brands Inc is a United States-based company engaged in providing nutrition-related products. Its brands, Premier Protein, Dymatize, and PowerBar provides various products including ready-to-drink protein shakes, powders, and nutrition bars. The company's products are distributed through a diverse network of channels including club, food, drug and mass, eCommerce, convenience and specialty.

Executives

Robert V Vitale	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC., 2503 SOUTH HANLEY ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Elliot Jr Stein	director	C/ COMMONWEALTH CAPITAL PARTNERS, 444 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Chonda J Nwamu	director	1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P.O. BOX 66149, ST. LOUIS MO 63166-6149
Thomas P Erickson	director	C/O BELLRING BRANDS, INC., 2503 S. HANLEY ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Jennifer Kuperman Johnson	director	C/O BELLRING BRANDS, INC., 2503 S. HANLEY ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Douglas J Cornille	officer: Chief Growth Officer	1222 67TH STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Craig L Rosenthal	officer: SVP, GC & SECRETARY	2503 S. HANLEY ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Robin Singh	officer: SVP, OPERATIONS OF PNC	1222 67TH STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Darcy Horn Davenport	director, officer: PRES. AND CEO	1222 67TH STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Paul A Rode	officer: CFO	2503 S. HANLEY ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Marc S Mollere	officer: SVP, INTERNATIONAL	C/O BELLRING BRANDS, INC., 2503 S. HANLEY RD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Post Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner	2503 S. HANLEY ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Jeff A Zadoks	director	2503 S. HANLEY ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Diedre J Gray	director	C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC., 2503 SOUTH HANLEY ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
Robert L Partin	officer: SVP, SALES OF PNC	1222 67TH STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608