Backblaze (Backblaze) Predictability Rank

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What is Backblaze Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Backblaze Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Backblaze (Backblaze) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Backblaze Inc (NAS:BLZE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

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Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 Ben Franklin Ct, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94401

Website

https://www.backblaze.com

Backblaze Inc provides cloud storage services. The company offers services such as Backblaze B2 Cloud Storage which enables customers to store data, developers to build applications, and partners to expand their use cases. It is offered as a consumption-based Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) and serves use cases including backups, multi-cloud, application development, and ransomware protection and Backblaze Computer Backup automatically backs up data from laptops and desktops for businesses and individuals. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

Tina Cessna	officer: Senior VP, Engineering	500 BEN FRANKLIN CT., SAN MATEO CA 94401
Francis P Patchel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	500 BEN FRANKLIN CT, SAN MATEO CA 94401
Investments Plc Tmt	10 percent owner	13 CASTLE STREET, ST. HELIER Y9 JE1 1ES
Gleb Budman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	500 BEN FRANKLIN CT, SAN MATEO CA 94401
Timothy M Nufire	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Cloud Officer	500 BEN FRANKLIN CT, SAN MATEO CA 94401
Brian K Wilson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	500 BEN FRANKLIN CT, SAN MATEO CA 94401
Charles J. Jones	10 percent owner	500 BEN FRANKLIN COURT, SAN MATEO CA 94401
Kwok Hang Ng	10 percent owner	500 BEN FRANKLIN COURT, SAN MATEO CA 94401
Clal Insurance Enterprises Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	36 RAUL WALENBERG ST, TEL-AVIV L3 6136902
Whetstone Capital Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	2001 SHAWNEE MISSION PARKWAY, SHAWNEE MISSION KS 66205
Jocelyn Carter-miller	director	3698 NW 15TH STREET, LAUDERHILL FL 33311
An Evelyn D	director	1301 NE 103RD STREET, MIAMI SHORES FL 33138
Earl E Fry	director	C/O INFORMATICA CORPORATION, 2100 SEAPORT BLVD., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Barbara H Nelson	director	C/O QUANTUM CORP, 501 SYCAORE DR, MILPITAS CA 95035