What is Brighthouse Financial Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Brighthouse Financial Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Brighthouse Financial (Brighthouse Financial) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
11225 North Community House Road, Gragg Building, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28277
Brighthouse Financial Inc is a United States-based provider of annuity products and life insurance through independent distribution channels and marketing arrangements with distribution partners. Its segments are Annuities, Life, and Run-off. It derives a majority of the revenue from the Annuities segment which includes variable, fixed, index-linked and income annuities. The life segment includes variable, term, universal and whole life policies.
Executives
| Philip V Bancroft |
director |
|
| Allie Lin |
officer: EVP & General Counsel |
11225 N COMMUNITY HOUSE RD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Carol Juel |
director |
777 LONG RIDGE ROAD, C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, STAMFORD CT 06902 |
| Kristine Toscano |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Vonda Huss |
officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer |
11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Stephen C Hooley |
director |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| Patrick J. Shouvlin |
director |
11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| William Francis Wallace |
director |
11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Edward A. Spehar |
officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer |
11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Christine M. Debiase |
officer: EVP,Chief LegalOfficer&CorpSec |
11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| C Edward Chaplin |
director |
C/O MBIA, 113 KING STREET, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| Eric T Steigerwalt |
director, officer: President and CEO |
11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| John Rosenthal |
officer: EVP & Chief Investment Officer |
334 MADISON AVENUE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960 |
| Myles Lambert |
officer: EVP,Chief Dist. & Mktg.Officer |
11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Murphy Conor |
officer: Chief Product&Strategy Officer |
11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 11225 |
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