Bausch Health (Bausch Health) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial

What is Bausch Health Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bausch Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Bausch Health Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Bausch Health's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Bausch Health (Bausch Health) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Bausch Health Companies Inc (NYSE:BHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BVF:Germany BVF:Germany BHC:Canada

Address

2150 Saint Elzear Boulvard West, Laval, QC, CAN, H7L 4A8

Website

https://www.bauschhealth.com

Bausch Health Companies Inc is a global specialty pharmaceutical, consumer health, and medical device company with a focus on branded products for the dermatology, gastrointestinal, and ophthalmology markets. The company reports revenue in five segments: Salix; International; Solta Medical; Diversified Products and Bausch + Lomb. It generates maximum revenue from the Bausch + Lomb segment.

Executives

Seana Carson	officer: EVP, General Counsel	400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BLVD, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
John S Barresi	officer: SVP, Controller & CAO	727 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard Mulligan	director	C/O ICAHN CAPITAL LP, 767 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4700, NEW YORK NY 10153
Tom George Vadaketh	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	1727 JOCKEYS WAY, YARDLEY PA 19067
Robert Spurr	director, officer: U.S. President-Pharma Business	C/O BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC., 400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BLVD., BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Joseph F Gordon	officer: Pres&Co-Head Bausch&Lomb/Int'l	C/O BLCO, 400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BLVD., BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Frederick Munsch	officer: SVP, Controller and CAO	C/O BLCO, 400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BLVD., BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Christina Ackermann	officer: EVP AND GENERAL COUNSEL	C/O BLCO, 400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BLVD., BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Sam Eldessouky	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O BLCO, 400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BLVD., BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Steven D Miller	director	16690 COLLINS AVENUE, PH, SUNNY ISLE BEACH FL 33160
Von Eschenbach Andrew C.	director	C/O BLCO, 400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BLVD., BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
De Schutter Richard U	director	C/O BLCO, 400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BLVD., BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Brett Icahn	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
William D. Humphries	officer: EVP, COMPANY GROUP CHAIRMAN	C/O STRATA SKIN SCIENCES, INC., 5 WALNUT GROVE DRIVE SUITE 140, HORSHAM PA 19044
Valueact Capital Master Fund, L.p.	director, other: See remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129