Axalta Coating Systems (Axalta Coating Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Axalta Coating Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Axalta Coating Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Axalta Coating Systems (Axalta Coating Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (NYSE:AXTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9AX:Germany 9AX:Germany

Address

50 Applied Bank Boulevard, Suite 300, Glen Mills, PA, USA, 19342

Website

https://www.axalta.com

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd is a manufacturer, marketer and distributor of high-performance coatings systems. It operates in two segments, The Performance Coatings segment provides liquid and powder coatings solutions to a fragmented and local customer base. Its end markets include refinish and industrial. The Mobility Coatings segment relates to the provision of coating technologies to original equipment manufacturers of light and commercial vehicles. The company operates in the geographic areas of North America, EMEA countries, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

Executives

Hadi Awada	officer: SVP, Global Trans. Coatings	AXALTA COATING SYSTEMS, 2001 MARKET STREET 36TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Brian A Berube	officer: SVP and General Counsel	C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210
Anthony Massey	officer: VP, Global Controller, PAO	AXALTA COATING SYSTEMS, 2001 MARKET STREET, 36TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Robert M Mclaughlin	director	C/O AIRGAS, INC., 259 NORTH RADNOR-CHESTER RD, RADNOR PA 19087
Mary Slagle Zappone	director	10900 NE 8TH ST., STE. 800, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Amy Tufano	officer: SVP & CHRO	50 APPLIED BANK BLVD., SUITE 300, GLEN MILLS PA 19342
Deborah J. Kissire	director	210 E. EARLL DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
William M Cook	director	1925 WEST FIELD COURT, SUITE 200, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Kevin M Stein	director	TRANSDIGM GROUP INCORPORATED, 1301 EAST 9TH STREET, SUITE 3000, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Anderson Carl Douglas Ii	officer: SVP and CFO	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Jacqueline Scanlan	officer: SVP & CHRO	HAEMONETICS CORPORATION, 400 WOOD ROAD, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Chris Villavarayan	director, officer: CEO & President	C/O MERITOR, INC., 2135 WEST MAPLE ROAD, TROY MI 48084
Jan Bertsch	director	3850 HAMLIN ROAD, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Troy D. Weaver	officer: SVP, Global Refinish	AXALTA COATING SYSTEMS, 2001 MARKET STREET 36TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Barry S Snyder	officer: SVP,Chief Ops & Sup Chain Offc	1200 WILLOW LAKE BOULEVARD, P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683