Aviat Networks (Aviat Networks) Predictability Rank

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What is Aviat Networks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aviat Networks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aviat Networks (Aviat Networks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Aviat Networks Inc (NAS:AVNW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HSD1:Germany HSD1:Germany

Address

200 Parker Drive, Suite C100A, Austin, TX, USA, 78728

Website

https://www.aviatnetworks.com

Aviat Networks Inc is a networking solutions provider. It designs, manufactures, and sells wireless networking products, solutions, and services to mobile and fixed operators, private network operators, government agencies, transportation and utility companies, public safety agencies, and broadcast network operators around the world. The company's product categories include point-to-point microwave and millimeter wave radios that are licensed (subject to local frequency regulatory requirements), lightly licensed and license-exempt (operating in license-exempt frequencies), and element and network management software.

Executives

Bryan Tucker	officer: Sr. VP, Americas Sales and Ser	200 PARKER DRIVE, SUITE C100A, AUSTIN TX 78728
Erin Boase	officer: VP Legal Affairs	AVIAT NETWORKS, INC., 200 PARKER DRIVE, SUITE C100A, AUSTIN TX 78728
Gary Croke	officer: VP Marketing and PLM	AVIAT NETWORKS, INC., 200 PARKER DRIVE, SUITE C100A, AUSTIN TX 78728
David M Gray	officer: Sr VP and CFO	AVIAT NETWORKS, INC, 200 PARKER DRIVE, SUITE C 100A, AUSTIN TX 78726
Pete A Smith	officer: President and CEO	C/O AVIAT NETWORKS, INC., 200 PARKER DR SUITE C100A, AUSTIN TX 78728
Bruce M. Taten	director	600 TRAVIS, SUITE 5600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Somesh Singh	director	1301 S MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78746
Bryan Ingram	director	C/O AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED, 350 WEST TRIMBLE ROAD, BLDG. 90, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Michele Klein	director	469 MINOCA ROAD, PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
Steel Excel Inc.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sph Group Llc	10 percent owner	C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS L.P., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steel Partners Holdings Gp Inc.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sph Group Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS L.P., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steel Partners Holdings L.p.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
James C Stoffel	director	101 KNOLLWOOD DRIVE, ROCHESTER NY 14618