Avista (Avista) Predictability Rank

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What is Avista Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avista Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avista (Avista) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Avista Corp (NYSE:AVA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AV6:Germany

Address

1411 East Mission Avenue, Spokane, WA, USA, 99202-2600

Website

https://www.avistacorp.com

Avista Corp is an electric and natural gas utility company headquartered in Spokane, Washington. Avista primarily operates in the Pacific Northwest of the United States along with some operations in Juneau, Alaska. The company has two major business segments including Avista Utilities, which provides electric distribution and transmission, and natural gas distribution services in parts of eastern Washington and northern Idaho and also provides natural gas distribution service in parts of northeastern and southwestern Oregon. Avista Utilities has electric generating facilities in Washington, Idaho, Oregon and Montana. AEL&P is a regulated utility providing electric services in Juneau, Alaska that is a wholly-owned subsidiary and the primary operating subsidiary of AERC.

Executives

Donald C Burke	director	C/O BLACKROCK FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 40 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
James M Kensok	officer: Vice President & CIO	1411 E MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Scott L Morris	officer: Sr. Vice President	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99202
David J Meyer	officer: Sr. VP & General Counsel	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Jason R Thackston	officer: Vice President	1411 E MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Wayne O Manuel	officer: Vice President	1411 E MISSION, SPOKANE WA 99202
Mark T Thies	officer: Sr. Vice President & CFO	1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Kevin B Jacobsen	director, other: Incoming Board Member	1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
Bryan Alden Cox	officer: Vice President	1411 E MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Scott J Kinney	officer: Vice President	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Joshua D Diluciano	officer: Vice President	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Kevin J Christie	officer: Vice President	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Julie A. Bentz	director, other: Incoming Board Member	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Sena M Kwawu	director, other: Incoming Board Member	1411 E MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Heidi B Stanley	other: Director Nominee	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99220-3727