What is Altice USA Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Altice USA Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Altice USA (Altice USA) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 Court Square West, Long Island City, New York, NY, USA, 11101
Altice Europe acquired privately held U.S. cable company Suddenlink in 2015 and Cablevision in 2016. Suddenlink's networks provide television, internet access, and phone services to roughly 3.5 million U.S. homes and businesses located primarily in smaller markets, with major clusters in Texas, West Virginia, Idaho, Arizona, and Louisiana. Cablevision provides comparable services to about 5.5 million homes and business in the New York City metro area. Both regions operate under the Optimum brand name. Altice Europe spun off Altice USA, which includes both the Suddenlink and Cablevision operations, to shareholders in 2018. Altice USA also owns News 12 Networks, which broadcasts local news in New York, i24News, a news operation focused on the Middle East, and Cheddar, a news upstart.
Executives
| Alexandre Fonseca |
director |
1 COURT SQUARE WEST, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101 |
| Marc Sirota |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1 COURT SQUARE WEST, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101 |
| Patrick Drahi |
director, 10 percent owner |
WIESTISTRASSE 14, ZERMATT V8 3920 |
| Next Alt S.a.r.l. |
director, 10 percent owner |
5, RUE EUGENE RUPPERT, GRAND DUCHY OF LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2453 |
| Dennis Mathew |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1 COURT SQUARE WEST, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101 |
| Maria Bruzzese |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
1 COURT SQUARE WEST, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101 |
| Charles Stewart |
officer: Co-President & CFO |
1111 STEWART AVENUE, BETHPAGE NY 11714 |
| Mark Mullen |
director |
1111 STEWART AVENUE, BETHPAGE NY 11714 |
| Susan C Schnabel |
director |
C/O CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON, 11 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Gerrit Jan Bakker |
director |
15 RUE PIERRE FATIO 6TH FLOOR, GENEVA V8 1204 |
| Raymond Svider |
director |
650 MADISON AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Michael Olsen |
officer: Acting Gen Counsel & Secretary |
1 COURT SQUARE W, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101 |
| Michael Grau |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1 COURT SQUARE W, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101 |
| Soroban Opportunities Master Fund Lp |
10 percent owner |
WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTRE, 27 HOSPITAL RD, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9008 |
| Soroban Capital Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
55 WEST 46TH STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
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