Air Transport Services Group (Air Transport Services Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Air Transport Services Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Air Transport Services Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Air Transport Services Group (Air Transport Services Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Air Transport Services Group Inc (NAS:ATSG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATSG:Mexico

Address

145 Hunter Drive, Wilmington, OH, USA, 45177

Website

https://www.atsginc.com

Air Transport Services Group Inc along with its subsidiaries operates within the airfreight and logistics industry. It leases aircraft and provides airline operations, ground services, aircraft modification and maintenance, and other support services mainly to the cargo transportation and package delivery industries. The company has two reportable segments namely Cargo Aircraft Management and ACMI Services (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance). It generates a majority of its revenue from the ACMI services segment.

Executives

Koharik Edward Joseph Iii	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Johns Raymond E Jr	director	C\O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Michael L Berger	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C\O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Jeffrey J Vorholt	director	13 VIA ROMA, PALM COAST FL 32137
Amazon Com Inc	10 percent owner	410 TERRY AVENUE NORTH, SEATTLE WA 98109
Matthew E. Fedders	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Paul Chase	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Joseph C Hete	officer: President & CEO
W Joseph Payne	officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Sec.	ABX AIR INC, 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Quint O Turner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Jeffrey A. Dominick	director	ABX HOLDINGS, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Randy D Rademacher	director	ABX AIR, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
John Christopher Teets	director	C/O RED MOUNTAIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC., 10100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 925, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Richard Francis Corrado	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Phyllis J Campbell	director	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177