What is Astronics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Astronics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Astronics (Astronics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
130 Commerce Way, East Aurora, NY, USA, 14052
Astronics Corp supplies products to the aerospace, defense, and other industries. The company has two reportable segments namely Aerospace and Test Systems. The aerospace segment serves three primary markets: military, commercial transport and business jet markets. Test Systems segment serves the aerospace, defense, and semiconductor markets. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Aerospace segment. Geographically, it generates a majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Robert S Keane |
director, 10 percent owner |
CIMPRESS PLC, 275 WYMAN STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Linda O'brien |
director |
6124 FOREST HIGHLANDS DR., FORT WORTH TX 76132 |
| Warren C Johnson |
director |
P.O. BOX 189, 13133 BEAR ROAD, WALES CENTER NY 14169 |
| Nancy L Hedges |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
130 COMMERCE WAY, EAST AURORA NY 14052 |
| Jeffry D Frisby |
director |
C/O QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, ONE QUAKER PARK, 901 HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428 |
| James Mulato |
other: Pres Astronics Test Systems |
4 GOODYEAR, IRVINE CA 92677 |
| Mark Peabody |
officer: VP Astronics Advanced Electron |
130 COMMERCE WAY, EAST AURORA NY 14052 |
| Tonit M Calaway |
director |
HARLEY-DAVIDSON MOTOR COMPANY, 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208 |
| David C Burney |
officer: VP-Finance, Treasurer |
130 COMMERCE WAY, EAST AURORA NY 14052 |
| Michael C Kuehn |
officer: Executive Vice President |
130 COMMERCE WAY, EAST AURORA NY 14052 |
| Mark J Moran |
director |
1600 SMITH STREET, HQSEO, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| James S Kramer |
officer: VP Luminescent Systems, Inc. |
130 COMMERCE WAY, EAST AURORA NY 14052 |
| Peter J Gundermann |
director |
130 COMMERCE WAY, EAST AURORA NY 14052 |
| Robert J Mckenna |
director |
38 QUARTERMASTER DRIVE, SALEM SC 29676 |
| 5096 Saranac Llc |
10 percent owner |
1801 ELMWOOD AVENUE, SUITE 1, BUFFALO NY 14207-2463 |
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