Atara Biotherapeutics (Atara Biotherapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Atara Biotherapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Atara Biotherapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Atara Biotherapeutics (Atara Biotherapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Atara Biotherapeutics Inc (NAS:ATRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AT2:Germany AT2:Germany

Address

2380 Conejo Spectrum St, Suite 200, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA, 91320

Website

https://www.atarabio.com

Atara Biotherapeutics Inc operates in the United States healthcare sector. It focuses on developing transformative therapies for patients with serious diseases, including solid tumors, hematologic cancers, and autoimmune diseases. The company's product candidates comprise Tab-cel, ATA188, and ATA3219 (CAR T Platform).

Executives

Jill Henrich	officer: EVP, Global Head RA & Quality	2380 CONEJO SPECTRUM ST, SUITE 200, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Pascal Touchon	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 611 GATEWAY BOULEVARD SUITE 900, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Amar Murugan	officer: SVP, GC & Secretary	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 611 GATEWAY BOULEVARD,SUITE 900, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Eric J Hyllengren	officer: SVP, CFO	2380 CONEJO SPECTRUM ST, SUITE 200, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Anhco Nguyen	officer: EVP, Chief Sci. & Tech Officer	2380 CONEJO SPECTRUM ST, SUITE 200, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Manher Joshi	officer: EVP, Chief Medical Officer	2380 CONEJO SPECTRUM ST, SUITE 200, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Carol Giltner Gallagher	director	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 3260 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005
Eric Dobmeier	director	C/O SAETTLE GENETICS INC, 21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
William K Heiden	director	C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Charlene A. Banard	officer: EVP, Chief Technical Officer	C/O APPLIED MOLECULAR TRANSPORT INC., 450 EAST JAMIE COURT, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jakob Dupont	officer: EVP, Head of R&D	C/O ONCOMED PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 800 CHESAPEAKE DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Utpal Koppikar	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 611 GATEWAY BLVD, SUITE 900, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Ameet Mallik	director	C/O RAFAEL HOLDINGS, INC., 520 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102
Kristin Yarema	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 611 GATEWAY BLVD., SUITE 900, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Joe Newell	officer: Chief Tech. Operations Officer	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 611 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080