Appian (Appian) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2017. Start your Free Trial

What is Appian Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Appian Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Appian Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Appian's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Appian (Appian) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Appian Corp (NAS:APPN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

DAVA RPD STNE MQ FLYW FOUR PAGS VRNS BOX ACIW MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SPLK

Traded in Other Exchanges

910:Germany 910:Germany

Address

7950 Jones Branch Drive, McLean, VA, USA, 22102

Website

https://www.appian.com

Appian is a low-code enterprise platform-as-a-service company focusing on business process management. The Appian platform is an integrated automation platform providing tools for organizations to design, automate, and optimize end-to-end processes and complex business operations. Capabilities include case management, robotic process automation, artificial intelligence, data fabric, and process mining. Most of Appian's revenue is subscription based with the remainder from services, with much of its subscription revenue being derived from its cloud-based platform, Appian Cloud.

Executives

Abdiel Qualified Master Fund Lp	10 percent owner	90 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Christopher M Jones	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	935 STEWART DR, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Mark Matheos	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Christopher Winters	officer: General Counsel	11955 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 1700, RESTON VA 20190
Abdiel Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O ABDIEL CAPITAL, 90 PARK AVENUE, FLOOR 29, NEW YORK NY 10016
Shirley Ann Edwards	director	7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Mark Steven Lynch	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11955 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 1700, RESTON VA 20190
Pavel Zamudio-ramirez	officer: Chief Customer Officer	7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Robert Charles Kramer	director, officer: General Manager	11955 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 1700, RESTON VA 20190
William D. Mccarthy	director	3111 CORONADO DRIVE, C/O INFOBLOX INC., SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Eric Calvin Cross	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O APPIAN CORPORATION, 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, TYSONS VA 22102
Biddle Albert G.w. Iii	director, 10 percent owner	11955 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 1700, RESTON VA 20190
Michael G Devine	director	6480 DOBBIN ROAD, COLUMBIA MD 21045
Prashanth Boccassam	director	11955 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 1700, RESTON VA 20190
Michael J. Mulligan	director	11955 DEMOCRACY DRIVE, SUITE 1700, RESTON VA 20190