Apollo Global Management (Apollo Global Management) Predictability Rank

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What is Apollo Global Management Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Apollo Global Management Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Apollo Global Management (Apollo Global Management) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Apollo Global Management Inc (NYSE:APO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N7I:Germany N7I:Germany

Address

9 West 57th Street, 42nd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.apollo.com

Apollo Global Management Inc is an alternative investment manager. It serves various sectors such as chemicals, manufacturing and industrial, natural resources, consumer and retail, consumer services, business services, financial services, leisure, and media and telecom and technology. The company operates in three business segments that are Asset Management, Retirement Services, and Principal Investing. It generates maximum revenue from the Retirement Services segment.

Executives

James C Zelter	director, officer: Co-President (See Remarks)	APOLLO INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Martin Kelly	officer: Chief Financial Officer	APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
A B Krongard	director	C/O UNDER ARMOUR, INC., 1020 HULL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21230
Joshua Harris	other: See Remarks	404 WASHINGTON AVE, PH 810, MIAMI FL 33139
Mjh Partners Ii Llc	other: See Remarks	404 WASHINGTON AVE, PH 810, MIAMI FL 33139
Patrick Toomey	director	C/O APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
John J Suydam	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O APOLLO MANAGEMENT LP, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Clayton Walter Joseph Iii	director	C/O APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jessica M Bibliowicz	director	NATIONAL FINANCIAL PARTNERS CORP., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 20TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10173
Louis-jacques Tanguy	officer: Chief Acct. Off. & Controller	C/O APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
James Richard Belardi	director, officer: CEO of Athene Holding Ltd.	C/O ATHENE HOLDING LTD., WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Alchemy Group Holdings Llc	other: See Remarks	65 EAST 55TH STREET, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Rwnm Series A Holdings Llc	other: See Remarks	65 EAST 55TH STREET, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Heritage Trust U/a/d 11/12/2018	other: See remarks.	ELYSIUM MANAGEMENT LLC, SUITE 1401, 445 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ldb 2014 Llc	other: See remarks.	ELYSIUM MANAGEMENT LLC, SUITE 1401, 445 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022