Amazon.com (AMZN) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1997. Start your Free Trial

What is Amazon.com Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amazon.com Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Amazon.com Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Amazon.com's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Amazon.com (AMZN) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Amazon.com Inc (NAS:AMZN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AMZN:Peru AMZ N:Mexico AMZN_KZ:Kazakhstan AMZN:Italy AMZd:UK 0R1O:UK AMZ1:Germany AMZ:Germany AMZ:Germany AMZ:Germany AMZ:Germany AMZN:Chile AMZN:Canada AMZO34:Brazil AMZN:Austria AMZN:Argentina

Address

410 Terry Avenue North, Seattle, WA, USA, 98109-5210

Website

https://www.amazon.com

Amazon is a leading online retailer and one of the highest-grossing e-commerce aggregators, with $386 billion in net sales and approximately $578 billion in estimated physical/digital online gross merchandise volume in 2021. Retail-related revenue represents approximately 80% of the total, followed by Amazon Web Services' cloud computing, storage, database, and other offerings (10%-15%), advertising services (5%), and other. International segments constitute 25%-30% of Amazon's non-AWS sales, led by Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Executives

Adam Selipsky	officer: CEO Amazon Web Services	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108
Douglas J Herrington	officer: CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108
David Zapolsky	officer: Senior Vice President	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108
Andrew R Jassy	director, officer: President and CEO	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226
Shelley Reynolds	officer: Vice President	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108
Brian T Olsavsky	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108
Daniel P Huttenlocher	director	ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831
Brad D Smith	director	1040 13TH AVE, HUNTINGTON WV 25701
Jeffrey P Bezos	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO and President	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226
David H Clark	officer: Senior Vice President	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108
Jonathan Rubinstein	director	APPLE COMPUTER INC, 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Edith W Cooper	director	C/O ETSY, INC., 117 ADAMS STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11249
Judith A Mcgrath	director	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108
Jeffrey A Wilke	officer: CEO Worldwide Consumer	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226
Patricia Q Stonesifer	director	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226