Affiliated Managers Group (Affiliated Managers Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Affiliated Managers Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Affiliated Managers Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Affiliated Managers Group (Affiliated Managers Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Affiliated Managers Group Inc (NYSE:AMG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

777 South Flagler Drive, West Palm Beach, FL, USA, 33401

Website

https://www.amg.com

Affiliated Managers Group offers investment strategies to investors through its network of affiliates. The firm typically buys a majority interest in small to midsize boutique asset managers, receiving a fixed percentage of revenue from these firms in return. Affiliates operate independently, with AMG providing strategic, operational, and technology support, as well as global distribution. At the end of September 2023, AMG's affiliate network—which includes firms like AQR Capital Management, and Pantheon in alternative assets and other products (which accounted for 36% of AUM), Artemis, Genesis, Harding Loevner, and Tweedy Browne in global and emerging-market equities (27%) and Frontier, River Road, Parnassus, and Yacktman in U.S. equities (21%)—had $635.8 billion in managed assets.

Executives

Loren M Starr	director
Reuben Iii Jeffery	director	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC., 777 SOUTH FLAGLER DR., STE. 1401 E TOWER, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Tracy P. Palandjian	director	SOCIAL FINANCE, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 14TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
John R Erickson	officer: Head of Affiliate Engagement	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC., 777 SOUTH FLAGLER DRIVE, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Rizwan M Jamal	officer: Head of Affiliate Investments	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC., 777 SOUTH FLAGLER DRIVE, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Jay C. Horgen	director, officer: President and CEO	AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC., 777 S. FLAGLER DR., SUITE 1201 E. TOWER, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Dwight D. Churchill	director	44 GAGE ROAD, BEDFORD NH 03110
David Christopher Ryan	director	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC., 777 SOUTH FLAGLER DRIVE, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Matos Rodriguez Felix V.	director	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC., 777 SOUTH FLAGLER DRIVE, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Tracy A Atkinson	director	MFS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 500 BOYLSTON ST., BOSTON MA 02116
Hugh Cutler	officer: EVP, Global Distribution	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC., 777 SOUTH FLAGLER DRIVE, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Thomas M Wojcik	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC., 777 SOUTH FLAGLER DRIVE, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Samuel T Byrne	director	CROSSHARBOR CAPITAL PARTNERS, ONE BOSTON PLACE, SUITE 2300, BOSTON MA 02108
Sean M Healey	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP INC, 777 S. FLAGLER DR., SUITE 1201 E. TOWER, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
David M. Billings	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC., 600 HALE ST., PO BOX 1000, PRIDES CROSSING MA 01965