Argan (AGX) Predictability Rank

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What is Argan Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Argan Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Argan Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Argan (AGX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Argan Inc (NYSE:AGX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1AW:Germany

Address

One Church Street, Suite 201, Rockville, MD, USA, 20850

Website

https://www.arganinc.com

Argan Inc is a United States-based company that primarily operates in the power industry services segment through its wholly-owned subsidiaries. Gemma Power Systems and affiliates, one of Argan's subsidiaries, contributed almost all Argan's sales. GPS is a contractor that provides a full range of engineering, procurement, and construction services for power-generating projects. GPS' works encompass complete plant design, construction, electrical interconnection, plant testing, and commissioning. Argan also generates a small portion of sales from industrial fabrication and field services, as well as telecommunication infrastructure services. It operates in three segments: Power Services, Industrial Services, and Telecom Services, out of which Power Services derive majority revenue.

Executives

Cynthia Flanders	director, officer: SVP & CFO	10006 WILDWOOD ROAD, KENSINGTON MD 20895
Jeffrey John Ronald Jr.	director	55 GRANDVIEW CIRCLE, MANHASSET NY 11030
Griffin William F Jr	director, officer: VC/CEO of Gemma Power Systems	C/O GEMMA POWER SYSTEMS, LLC, 769 HEBRON AVENUE, GLASTONBURY CT 06033
Mitchell W G Champion	director	NETWORK SOLUTIONS, INC., 3009 RIVER LANE, NEW BERN NC 28562
David Hibbert Watson	officer: SVP and CFO	C/O ARGAN, INC., ONE CHURCH STREET, SUITE 201, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Richard H Deily	officer: Vice President	C/O ARGAN, INC., ONE CHURCH STREET, SUITE 201, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Peter W Getsinger	director	35 SNOW?S POINT, EDGARTOWN MA 02539
James W Quinn	director	PUROFLOW INCORPORATED, ONE CHURCH STREET SUITE 302, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Trebilcock Terrance Colin	officer: Co-President, Gemma Power Sys.	64 SADDLE RIDGE ROAD, GLASTONBURY CT 06033
Collins Charles Edwin Iv	officer: Co-President, Gemma Power Sys.	68 HICKORY DRIVE, SOUTH GLASTONBURY CT 06073
Mano S Koilpillai	director	7380 IRA SEARS ROAD, ADAMSTOWN MD 21710
James E Quinn	director	C/O TIFFANY & CO LEGAL DEPT, 727 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Henry A Crumpton	director	2101 WILSON BLVD., SUITE 500, ARLINGTON VA 20005
William F. Leimkuhler	director	43 SALEM STRAITS RD, DARIEN CT 06820
Rainer H Bosselmann	director, officer: Chairman of the Board and CEO	PUROFLOW INCORPORATED, ONE CHURCH STREET SUITE 302, ROCKVILLE MD 20850