Agilon Health (Agilon Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Agilon Health Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Agilon Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Agilon Health (Agilon Health) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Agilon Health Inc (NYSE:AGL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6210 E. US Highway 290, Suite 450, Austin, TX, USA, 78723

Website

https://www.agilonhealth.com

Agilon Health Inc is transforming healthcare by empowering community-based physicians with the resources and expertise they need to innovate the payment and delivery of care for seniors. The company enables physicians to create their own Medicare-centric globally capitated line of business.

Executives

Jeffrey A. Schwaneke	director	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
Steven Sell	director, officer: CEO & President	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
Benjamin Shaker	officer: Chief Markets Officer	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
Timothy Gertsch	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
Silvana Battaglia	director	227 WASHINGTON STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Cd&r Investment Associates Ix, Ltd.	10 percent owner	MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY101194
Veeral Desai	officer: Chief Strategy & Dev. Officer	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
Benjamin Kornitzer	officer: Chief Med. & Quality Officer	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
John William Wulf	director	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
Diana Mckenzie	director	METLIFE, 200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10166
Priscilla Kasenchak	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1111 MARCUS AVENUE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Michael L Smith	director	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723
Theodore Halkias	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 1 WORLD TRADE CENTER, SUITE 2000, LONG BEACH CA 90831
Joan Danieley	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 1 WORLD TRADE CENTER, SUITE 2000, LONG BEACH CA 90831
Glenn Sobotka	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O AGILON HEALTH, INC., 6210 E HWY 290, SUITE 450, AUSTIN TX 78723