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AFC Gamma (AFC Gamma) Predictability Rank


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What is AFC Gamma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AFC Gamma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

AFC Gamma Predictability Rank Related Terms

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AFC Gamma (AFC Gamma) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » AFC Gamma Inc (NAS:AFCG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NLCP CORR PW LAND FPI UNIT AMT EQIX CCI DLR SBAC WY IRM GLPI LAMR RYN PCH EPR ASX:ARF ASX:WPR
Traded in Other Exchanges
0FG:Germany
Address
525 Okeechobee Boulevard, Suite 1650, West Palm Beach, FL, USA, 33401
Website
https://www.afcgamma.com
AFC Gamma Inc is a commercial real estate finance company. The company originates, structures, underwrites and manages senior secured loans and other types of loans for established cannabis industry operators in states that have legalized medicinal and/or adult-use cannabis.
Executives
James C. Fagan director 123 HARBOR DRIVE, UNIT 211, STAMFORD CT 06902
Leonard M Tannenbaum director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 525 OKEECHOBEE BLVD., SUITE 1770, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Robyn Tannenbaum officer: Managing Director 525 OKEECHOBEE BLVD., SUITE 1770, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Brandon Hetzel officer: CFO and Treasurer 525 OKEECHOBEE BLVD., SUITE 1770, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Jonathan Gilbert Kalikow director, 10 percent owner, officer: Head of Real Estate 101 PARK AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10178
Brett Kaufman officer: CFO and Treasurer 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD., 12TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
Marnie Migatz Sudnow director 525 OKEECHOBEE BLVD., SUITE 1770, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Thomas L Harrison director
Jodi Hanson Bond director 777 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Alexander C Frank director 525 OKEECHOBEE BLVD., SUITE 1770, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Robert L Levy director 525 OKEECHOBEE BLVD., SUITE 1770, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Tomer Tzur director 7545 SW 54TH AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33143
Thomas Geoffroy officer: CFO and Treasurer 525 OKEECHOBEE BLVD., SUITE 1770, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401