What is AerCap Holdings NV Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
AerCap Holdings NV Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
AerCap Holdings NV (AerCap Holdings NV) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
65 St. Stephen's Green, AerCap House, Dublin, IRL, D02 YX20
AerCap Holdings NV is an aircraft leasing company. Its major activities include leasing, financing, sales, and management of commercial aircraft and engines. It also provides aircraft asset management and corporate services to securitization vehicles, joint ventures, and other third parties. Through its subsidiary, the group also provides engine leasing, certified aircraft engines, airframes, and engine parts. Its geographical segments include China, United States, and Other countries.
Executives
| Michael George Walsh |
director |
65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2 |
| James A Lawrence |
director |
2211 S 47TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85034 |
| Michael Gradon |
director |
AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2 |
| Aengus Kelly |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2 |
| Den Dikken Wouter Marinus |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2 |
| James N Chapman |
director |
14 ALPINE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Peter Juhas |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2 |
| Philip Gene Scruggs |
officer: Chief Comm. Off. and President |
AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2 |
| Robert G Warden |
director |
AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2 |
| Marius Jonkhart |
director |
AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2 |
| Al Noaimi Salem Rashed Abdulla Ali |
director |
AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2 |
| Walter Field Mclallen |
director |
1225 17TH AVE SOUTH, NASHVILLE TN 37212 |
| Paul T Dacier |
director |
EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748 |
| Pieter Korteweg |
director |
C/O CERBERUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.P., 299 PARK AVENUE - 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171 |
| Robert H Benmosche |
director |
180 MAIDEN LANE, NEW YORK NY 10038 |
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