American Equity Investment Life Holding Co (American Equity Investment Life Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is American Equity Investment Life Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Equity Investment Life Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Equity Investment Life Holding Co (American Equity Investment Life Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » American Equity Investment Life Holding Co (NYSE:AEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AELpB.PFD:USA AELpA.PFD:USA AM5:Germany

Address

6000 Westown Parkway, West Des Moines, IA, USA, 50266

Website

https://www.american-equity.com

American Equity Investment Life Holding Co is a financial services company. Its core business is selling fixed-index and fixed-rate annuity products through its subsidiaries, American Equity Investment Life Insurance Company of New York and Eagle Life Insurance Company. The company is licensed to sell its products in 50 states and the District of Columbia. Its targeted clients are individuals aged 45-75 who are interested in accumulating tax-deferred savings or creating guaranteed lifetime income.

Executives

Aaron Boushek	officer: Controller	6000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Jeffrey D Lorenzen	officer: Sr. Vice President-Investments	6000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Axel Andre	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Robert L Howe	director	5000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, SUITE 440, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Anant Bhalla	director, officer: President	11225 NORTH COMMUNITY HOUSE ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
James Louis Hamalainen	officer: EVP & CCSO, AEILIC	6000 WESTOWN PKWY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Dewayne Lummus	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	6000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266-9024
Michael E Hayes	director	6000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Alan David Matula	director	828 ST. CHARLES, NEW ORLEANS LA 70130
Kate Etinger	officer: Chief People Officer	6000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Nicholas P. Volpe	officer: Chief Technology Officer	6000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Gerard D. Neugent	director	6000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Ronald James Grensteiner	officer: Vice President	5000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Joyce Ann Chapman	director	5000 WESTOWN PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
North End Re (cayman) Spc	10 percent owner	18 FORUM LANE, 2ND FLOOR, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY-1102