What is Archer Aviation Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Archer Aviation Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Archer Aviation (Archer Aviation) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
190 West Tasman Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134
Archer Aviation Inc advances the benefits of sustainable air mobility. It is creating the electric airline that moves people throughout cities in a quick, safe, sustainable, and cost-effective manner. It is designing, manufacturing, and operating a fully electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft that can carry four passengers for around 60 miles at speeds of up to 150 mph while producing minimal noise.
Executives
| Tosha Perkins |
officer: Chief People Officer |
757 N. ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Andy Missan |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
C/O FITBIT, INC., 405 HOWARD STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105 |
| N.v. Stellantis |
10 percent owner |
TAURUSAVENUE 1, HOOFDDORP P7 2132LS |
| Thomas Paul Muniz |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O ARCHE AVIATION INC., 1880 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303 |
| Fca Foreign Sales Holdco Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
PINLEY HOUSE, 2 SUNBEAM WAY, CONVENTRY, WEST MIDLANDS X0 CV3 1ND |
| Sfs Uk 1 Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
PINLEY HOUSE, 2 SUNBEAM WAY, COVENTRY, WEST MIDLANDS X0 CV3 1ND |
| Fca Italy S.p.a. |
10 percent owner |
CORSO GIOVANNI AGNELLI 200, TURIN L6 10135 |
| Fca Us Llc |
10 percent owner |
1000 CHRYSLER DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326 |
| Fca North America Holdings Llc |
10 percent owner |
1000 CHRYSLER DRIVE, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326 |
| Brett Adcock |
10 percent owner |
C/O ARCHER AVIATION INC., 1880 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303 |
| Deborah Diaz |
director |
6830 OLD DOMINION DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22101 |
| Mark Mesler |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ARCHER AVIATION INC., 1880 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303 |
| Michael Spellacy |
director |
399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Fred M Diaz |
director |
9614 AMALFI CT, BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| Adam D Goldstein |
director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer |
C/O ARCHER AVIATION INC., 190 TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
ACHR has been successfully added to your