American Airlines Group (American Airlines Group) Predictability Rank

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What is American Airlines Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Airlines Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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American Airlines Group (American Airlines Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » American Airlines Group Inc (NAS:AAL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AAL:Peru AAL:Mexico AAL_KZ:Kazakhstan 1AAL:Italy 0HE6:UK A1G:Germany A1G:Germany A1G:Germany A1G:Germany AALL34:Brazil

Address

1 Skyview Drive, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76155

Website

https://www.americanairlines.in

American Airlines is the world's largest airline by aircraft, capacity, and scheduled revenue passenger miles. Its major U.S. hubs are Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. It generates over 30% of U.S. airline revenue connecting Latin America with destinations in the United States. After completing a major fleet renewal, the company has the youngest fleet of U.S. legacy carriers.

Executives

Vasu Raja	officer: SVP, Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Douglas M Steenland	director	2700 LONE OAK PARKWAY, EAGAN MN 55121
Angela Owens	officer: VP Corporate Controller	C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
David Seymour	officer: SVP Chief Operating Officer	C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Devon E May	officer: EVP Chief Financial Officer	C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Vicente Reynal	director	C/O INGERSOLL RAND INC., 525 HARBOUR PLACE DRIVE, SUITE 600, DAVIDSON NC 28036
Priya Aiyar	officer: See remarks	C/O AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC., 1 SKYVIEW DRIVE, FORT WORTH TX 76155
Gregory D Smith	director	100 N RIVERSIDE PLAZA, M/C 3005-1001, CHICAGO IL 60606-1596
Adriane M Brown	director	3150 139TH AVENUE S.E., BELLEVUE WA 98040
John T Cahill	director	LEGG MASON, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Michael J Embler	director	C/O NMI HOLDINGS, INC., 2100 POWELL STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
James F Albaugh	director	C/O THE BOEING COMPANY, 100 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, CHICAGO IL 60606
Isom Robert D Jr	officer: See Remarks	1689 NONCONNAH BLVD, SUITE 111, MEMPHIS TN 38132
Ray M Robinson	director	1170 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA GA 30309
Maya Leibman	officer: EVP Chief Information Officer	4333 AMON CARTER BLVD, FORT WORTH TX 76155