Applied UV (Applied UV) Predictability Rank

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What is Applied UV Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Applied UV Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Applied UV (Applied UV) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Applied UV Inc (OTCPK:AUVIQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5XJ2:Germany

Address

150 N. Macquesten Parkway, Mount Vernon, NY, USA, 10550

Website

https://www.applieduvinc.com

Applied UV Inc is focused on the development and acquisition of technology that addresses infection control in the healthcare, hospitality, commercial and municipal markets. The company operates in three reportable segments: the design, manufacture, assembly and distribution of automated disinfecting systems for use in public spaces, hospitals and other healthcare facilities (Disinfectant segment) and the manufacture of fine mirrors specifically for the hospitality industry (Hospitality segment)and Corporate segment. It derives a majority of its revenue from the Hospitality segment.

Executives

Laurie Munn	10 percent owner	150 N. MACQUESTEN PARKWAY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
Brian Andrew Stern	director, 10 percent owner	12340 W CEDAR DR., LAKEWOOD CO 80228
Monica L Woo	director	1600 STEWAQRT AVE, WESTBURY NY 11590
Luhukay Joseph Fellipus Peter	director	150 N. MACQUESTEN PKWY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
John Fay Andrews	director, officer: Chief Exeutive Officer	150 N. MACQUESTEN PKWY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
Hayman John James Iii	officer: Interim COO	3625 KENNESAW NORTH IND PKWY NW, KENNESAW GA 30144
Michael Gerard Riccio	officer: Chief Financial Officer	150 N. MACQUESTEN PARKWAY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
Eugene A Bauer	director	C/O APPLIED UV, INC., 150 N. MACQUESTEN PKWY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
Joel S Kanter	director	C/O APPLIED UV, INC., 150 N. MACQUESTEN PKWY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
Alastair J Clemow	director	C/O APPLIED UV, INC., 150 N. MACQUESTEN PKWY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
Max Munn	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	150 N. MACQUESTEN PARKWAY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
Dallas Christian Hack	director	150 N. MACQUESTEN PARKWAY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
Keyoumars Saeed	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	150 N. MACQUESTEN PARKWAY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
James Doyle	officer: Chief Operations Officer	150 N. MACQUESTEN PARKWAY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550
Eugene Burleson	director	150 N. MACQUESTEN PARKWAY, MOUNT VERNON NY 10550