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Anhui Gujing Distillery Co (SZSE:000596) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : ¥96.83 (As of Apr. 28, 2024)


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What is Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-28), Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is ¥96.83. The stock price of Anhui Gujing Distillery Co is ¥270.15. Therefore, Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 2.8.

The historical rank and industry rank for Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

SZSE:000596' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.29   Med: 2.87   Max: 5.93
Current: 2.79

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Anhui Gujing Distillery Co was 5.93. The lowest was 1.29. And the median was 2.87.

SZSE:000596's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
84.31% of 153 companies
in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry
Industry Median: 1.27 vs SZSE:000596: 2.79

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 28.02 28.76 45.84 71.58 77.05

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Quarterly Data
Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 90.01 77.05 90.90 92.84 96.83

Competitive Comparison of Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries subindustry, Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Beverages - Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = ¥2,333.83.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Sep23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*2333.83344+20739.863*0.8)/529.560
=96.83

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Anhui Gujing Distillery Co  (SZSE:000596) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=270.15/96.832932440357
=2.79

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Anhui Gujing Distillery Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Anhui Gujing Distillery Co (SZSE:000596) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Gujing Town, Anhui Province, Bozhou, CHN, 236820
Anhui Gujing is one of the eight most famous baijiu brands in China and the largest baijiu distiller in Anhui province by sales in 2022. The company produces rich-flavored baijiu, with a colorful brand story tracing back 1,800 years to the Three Kingdoms period. Gujing is one of the leading players in the midrange to high-end market and enjoys high retail prices and profit margins, with its flagship Gujing Year Puree series contributing 70%-75% of total sales. The State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Bozhou controls 28% of Gujing.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co (SZSE:000596) Headlines

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