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Shake Shack (Shake Shack) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $0.80 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)


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What is Shake Shack Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-26), Shake Shack's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $0.80. The stock price of Shake Shack is $104.88. Therefore, Shake Shack's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 131.1.

The historical rank and industry rank for Shake Shack's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

SHAK' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 9.78   Med: 14.58   Max: 131.33
Current: 131.1

During the past 12 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Shake Shack was 131.33. The lowest was 9.78. And the median was 14.58.

SHAK's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
98.62% of 218 companies
in the Restaurants industry
Industry Median: 1.435 vs SHAK: 131.10

Shake Shack Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Shake Shack's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Shake Shack Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Shake Shack Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 6.09 6.84 4.95 1.71 0.80

Shake Shack Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.71 0.68 1.07 0.28 0.80

Competitive Comparison of Shake Shack's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Restaurants subindustry, Shake Shack's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Shake Shack's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Shake Shack's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shake Shack's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Shake Shack Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Shake Shack's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $-28.30.

Shake Shack's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(11.29937129898*-28.29616+443.417*0.8)/43.944
=0.80

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Shake Shack  (NYSE:SHAK) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Shake Shack's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=104.88/0.79657704862206
=131.66

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Shake Shack Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shake Shack's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Shake Shack (Shake Shack) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
225 Varick Street, Suite 301, New York, NY, USA, 10014
Shake Shack Inc is a roadside burger stands. It is serving a classic American menu of premium burgers, hot dogs, crispy chicken, frozen custard, crinkle-cut fries, shakes, beer, wine and more. The company's burgers are made with a whole-muscle blend of all-natural, hormone and antibiotic-free Angus beef, ground fresh daily, cooked to order and served on a non-genetically modified organism (GMO) potato bun. Its menu focuses on food and beverages, crafted from a range of classic American foods. The company serves draft Root Beer, seasonal freshly-squeezed lemonade, organic fresh brewed iced tea, cold brew coffee, organic apple juice, and Shack20 bottled water.
Executives
Jeffrey Flug director C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Chapman Charles J Iii director 1502 HUNTER DRIVE, WAYZATA MN 55391
Zach Koff officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O SHAKE SHACK INC., 24 UNION SQUARE EAST, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Jeffrey D Lawrence director 30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Lori George Billingsley director 777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Daniel Harris Meyer director 24 UNION SQUARE EAST, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Jenna Lyons director C/O J.CREW GROUP, INC., 770 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10003
Katherine Irene Fogertey officer: Chief Financial Officer 225 VARICK STREET, SUITE 301, NEW YORK NY 10014
Randall J Garutti director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O SHAKE SHACK INC., 24 UNION SQUARE EAST, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Tara Comonte officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER C/O SHAKE SHACK INC., 24 UNION SQUARE EAST,5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Tristan Walker director 330 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Robert T Vivian director C/O SHAKE SHACK INC., 24 UNION SQUARE EAST, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Sumaiya Balbale director 697 CALMAR AVENUE, OAKLAND CA 94610
Select Equity Group, L.p. director, other: See Remarks 380 LAFAYETTE STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Green Equity Investors Vi, L.p. director, 10 percent owner 11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025

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