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Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : A$3.37 (As of May. 02, 2024)


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What is Mirvac Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-05-02), Mirvac Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.37. The stock price of Mirvac Group is A$2.05. Therefore, Mirvac Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.6.

The historical rank and industry rank for Mirvac Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

ASX:MGR' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.54   Med: 0.69   Max: 0.91
Current: 0.61

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Mirvac Group was 0.91. The lowest was 0.54. And the median was 0.69.

ASX:MGR's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
56.75% of 548 companies
in the REITs industry
Industry Median: 0.66 vs ASX:MGR: 0.61

Mirvac Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Mirvac Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Mirvac Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Mirvac Group Annual Data
Trend Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.02 3.22 3.39 3.66 3.37

Mirvac Group Semi-Annual Data
Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - 3.66 - 3.37 -

Competitive Comparison of Mirvac Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the REIT - Diversified subindustry, Mirvac Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Mirvac Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Mirvac Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Mirvac Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Mirvac Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Mirvac Group's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = A$508.00.

Mirvac Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Jun23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*508+10557*0.8)/3944.000
=3.37

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Mirvac Group  (ASX:MGR) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Mirvac Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=2.05/3.3676314935979
=0.61

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Mirvac Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Mirvac Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
200 George Street, Level 28, Sydney, NSW, AUS, 2000
Mirvac is one of Australia's largest residential developers, particularly apartments. Residential development earnings are volatile, generating about a fifth of EBIT in fiscal 2023, despite accounting for only about 15% of the group's invested capital. Over our 10-year discrete forecast period we don't expect residential development to exceed the lofty peaks seen in 2017, when Mirvac settled 3,400 residential lots, however, we expect modest growth over time as Mirvac gains market share and constructs housing into an under-supplied market. About 80% of Mirvac's earnings come from a predictable commercial property portfolio, more than half of which is high-grade office and another fourth in retail, a small industrial portfolio, and a small but growing build-to-rent residential portfolio.

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