Ford Motor Co (Ford Motor Co) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $19.53 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Ford Motor Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Ford Motor Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $19.53.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Ford Motor Co's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Ford Motor Co is 34.51%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Ford Motor Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Ford Motor Co was 2.70. The lowest was 0.60. And the median was 0.68.

F's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Vehicles & Parts industry.
Industry Median: 0.89
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Ford Motor Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Ford Motor Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Ford Motor Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Ford Motor Co Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

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Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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Ford Motor Co Quarterly Data
	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Ford Motor Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Auto Manufacturers subindustry, Ford Motor Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Ford Motor Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Ford Motor Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ford Motor Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Ford Motor Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Ford Motor Co's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was -5.40%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $1.692.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Ford Motor Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

1.692

11.5406

19.53

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(19.53	-	12.79)	/	19.53
	=	34.51 %

Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Ford Motor Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Ford Motor Co (Ford Motor Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

F:Peru F:Mexico F_KZ:Kazakhstan 1F:Italy FMC1d:UK 0P4F:UK FMC1:Germany FMC1:Germany FMC1:Germany FMC1:Germany FDMO34:Brazil FORD:Austria

Address

One American Road, Dearborn, MI, USA, 48126

Website

https://www.ford.com

Ford Motor Co. manufactures automobiles under its Ford and Lincoln brands. In March 2022, the company announced that it will run its combustion engine business, Ford Blue, and its BEV business, Ford Model e, as separate businesses but still all under Ford Motor. The company has about 13% market share in the United States, about 6.5% share in Europe, and about 2.1% share in China including unconsolidated affiliates. We expect market share to increase as inventory improves coming out of the chip shortage. Sales in the U.S. made up about 67% of 2022 total company revenue. Ford has about 173,000 employees, including about 57,000 UAW employees, and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Executives

John Douglas Field	officer: Chief AT&ES Officer	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Andrew Frick	officer: President, Ford Blue	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Peter C Stern	officer: President, Integrated Services	C/O FORD MOTOR COMPANY, ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
John T. Lawler	officer: Vice President and Controller	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Farley Jr James D	officer: Group Vice President	FORD MOTOR COMPANY, ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Ashwani Kumar Galhotra	officer: Group Vice President	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48138
Theodore J. Cannis	officer: CEO of Ford Pro	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Shengpo Wu	officer: President and CEO, Ford China	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Stuart J. Rowley	officer: Vice President and Controller	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Jennifer Waldo	officer: Chief People & E. Exp. Officer	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Marin Gjaja	officer: Chief Cust. Off., Ford Model e	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Ford William Clay Jr	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	FORD MOTOR COMPANY, ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Alexandra Ford English	director	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
May John C Ii	director	DEERE & COMPANY, ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265
Catherine A. O'callaghan	officer: Vice President and Controller	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126