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Commercial Metals Co (Commercial Metals Co) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $60.57 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Commercial Metals Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Commercial Metals Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $60.57.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Commercial Metals Co's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Commercial Metals Co is 11.71%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Commercial Metals Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Commercial Metals Co was 11.15. The lowest was 0.00. And the median was 4.64.

CMC's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Steel industry.
Industry Median: 0.645
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Commercial Metals Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Commercial Metals Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Commercial Metals Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Commercial Metals Co Annual Data
Trend Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Commercial Metals Co Quarterly Data
May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22 Aug22 Nov22 Feb23 May23 Aug23 Nov23 Feb24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Commercial Metals Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Steel subindustry, Commercial Metals Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Commercial Metals Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Steel Industry

For the Steel industry and Basic Materials sector, Commercial Metals Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Commercial Metals Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Commercial Metals Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Commercial Metals Co's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 1.90%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $5.2488.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Commercial Metals Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=5.2488*11.5406
=60.57

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (60.57 - 53.48) / 60.57
= 11.71 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Commercial Metals Co  (NYSE:CMC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Commercial Metals Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Commercial Metals Co (Commercial Metals Co) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Commercial Metals Co (NYSE:CMC) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6565 North MacArthur Boulevard, Irving, TX, USA, 75039
Commercial Metals Co operates steel mills, steel fabrication plants, and metal recycling facilities in the United States and manufactures rebar and structural steel, which are key product categories for the nonresidential construction sector. The Company has two reportable segments: North America and Europe.
Executives
Barbara Smith director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO 6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IVING TX 75039
Stephen William Simpson officer: SVP, N. American Steel Group 6565 NORTH MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Peter R Matt director 6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Lindsay L Sloan officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer 6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Ty L Garrison officer: SVP Operations 6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Robert S Wetherbee director MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC, 622 THIRD AVENUE 38TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017
John R Mcpherson director 1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Tracy L Porter officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer 6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Gary E Mccullough director 231 N. MARTINGALE ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60173
Jody K Absher officer: VP General Counsel & Corp Sec 6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Paul James Lawrence officer: VP & Chief Financial Officer 6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Adam R Hickey officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer 6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Lisa M Barton director AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC., 1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
J David Smith director GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
Charles L Szews director 6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039