Air Transport Services Group (Air Transport Services Group) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $ (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Air Transport Services Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Air Transport Services Group's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Air Transport Services Group's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Air Transport Services Group is

The historical rank and industry rank for Air Transport Services Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ATSG's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Transportation industry.
Industry Median: 0.91
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Air Transport Services Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Air Transport Services Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Air Transport Services Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Air Transport Services Group Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

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Dec16

Dec17

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Dec19

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Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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Air Transport Services Group Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Air Transport Services Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Airlines subindustry, Air Transport Services Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Air Transport Services Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Transportation Industry

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Air Transport Services Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Air Transport Services Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Air Transport Services Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = %
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Air Transport Services Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(	-	12.91)	/

Air Transport Services Group (NAS:ATSG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Air Transport Services Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Air Transport Services Group (Air Transport Services Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Air Transport Services Group Inc (NAS:ATSG) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATSG:Mexico

Address

145 Hunter Drive, Wilmington, OH, USA, 45177

Website

https://www.atsginc.com

Air Transport Services Group Inc along with its subsidiaries operates within the airfreight and logistics industry. It leases aircraft and provides airline operations, ground services, aircraft modification and maintenance, and other support services mainly to the cargo transportation and package delivery industries. The company has two reportable segments namely Cargo Aircraft Management and ACMI Services (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance). It generates a majority of its revenue from the ACMI services segment.

Executives

Koharik Edward Joseph Iii	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Johns Raymond E Jr	director	C\O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Michael L Berger	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C\O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Jeffrey J Vorholt	director	13 VIA ROMA, PALM COAST FL 32137
Amazon Com Inc	10 percent owner	410 TERRY AVENUE NORTH, SEATTLE WA 98109
Matthew E. Fedders	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Paul Chase	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Joseph C Hete	officer: President & CEO
W Joseph Payne	officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Sec.	ABX AIR INC, 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Quint O Turner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Jeffrey A. Dominick	director	ABX HOLDINGS, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Randy D Rademacher	director	ABX AIR, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
John Christopher Teets	director	C/O RED MOUNTAIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC., 10100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 925, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Richard Francis Corrado	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Phyllis J Campbell	director	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177