Constellation Brands (Constellation Brands) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $213.93 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Constellation Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Constellation Brands's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $213.93.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Constellation Brands's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Constellation Brands is -21.55%.

The industry rank for Constellation Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

STZ's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry.
Industry Median: 1.22
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Constellation Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Constellation Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Constellation Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Constellation Brands Annual Data

Trend

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Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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Constellation Brands Quarterly Data
	May19	Aug19	Nov19	Feb20	May20	Aug20	Nov20	Feb21	May21	Aug21	Nov21	Feb22	May22	Aug22	Nov22	Feb23	May23	Aug23	Nov23	Feb24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Constellation Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries subindustry, Constellation Brands's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Constellation Brands's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Beverages - Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Constellation Brands's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Constellation Brands's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Constellation Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 17.30%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Constellation Brands's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 17.30%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 17.30%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $8.206.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Constellation Brands's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.173)/(1+0.11) = 1.0567567567568
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

8.206

26.0704

213.93

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(213.93	-	260.04)	/	213.93
	=	-21.55 %

Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Constellation Brands Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Constellation Brands (Constellation Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE:STZ) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

STZ:Mexico CB1A:Germany STZB34:Brazil STZ:Austria

Address

207 High Point Drive, Building 100, Victor, New York, NY, USA, 14564

Website

https://www.cbrands.com

Constellation Brands is the largest provider of alcoholic beverages across the beer, wine, and spirits categories in the U.S., generating 80% of revenue from Mexican beer imports under top-selling brands such as Modelo and Corona. The rest of the business includes some remaining wine and spirits brands, categories where the company continue to prune assets in recent years. With its exclusive rights tied to the Mexican beer brands effective only in the U.S., the firm has small revenue exposure to international markets. Constellation owns a 36% stake in no-moat Canopy Growth, a medicinal and recreational cannabis producer in Canada, and has a 50/50 joint venture with glass manufacturer Owens-Illinois in Mexico.

Executives

Family Foundation Sands	other: Member of 10% owner group	C/O WILDSTAR PARTNERS LLC, 110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444
Ernesto M Hernandez	director	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BLDG. 100, VICTOR NY 14564
James O. Bourdeau	officer: EVP & Gen. Counsel	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BLDG. 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Daniel J Mccarthy	director	FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS, 401 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851
Robert Lee Hanson	officer: EVP & Pres. Wine and Spirits	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564
William A Newlands	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DR., BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Kaneenat Kristann Carey	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BUILDING 100, VICTOR NY 14564
Garth Hankinson	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC., 207 HIGH POINT DRIVE, BLDG. 100, VICTOR NY 14564
William T Giles	director	123 S. FRONT STREET, DEPT. 8074, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Luca Zaramella	director	C/O MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL, INC., THREE PARKWAY NORTH, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Rht 2015 Business Holdings Lp	other: Member of 10% owner group	110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, C/O WILDSTAR PARTNERS LLC, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444
Rss Business Holdings Lp	10 percent owner	C/O WILDSTAR PARTNERS LLC, 110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444
Rct 2015 Business Holdings Lp	other: Member of 10% owner group	110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, C/O WILDSTAR PARTNERS LLC, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444
Wildstar Partners Llc	10 percent owner	110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444
Rss 2015 Business Holdings Lp	other: Member of 10% owner group	110 E ATLANTIC AVE, STE. 200, C/O WILDSTAR PARTNERS LLC, DELRAY BEACH FL 33444