GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Snowflake (Snowflake) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $26.39 (As of Apr. 28, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Snowflake Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-28), Snowflake's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $26.39.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Snowflake's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Snowflake is -499.20%.

The industry rank for Snowflake's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

SNOW's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Software industry.
Industry Median: 0.96
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Snowflake Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Snowflake's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Snowflake Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Snowflake Annual Data
Trend Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial - - - - -

Snowflake Quarterly Data
Jan19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Snowflake's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Software - Application subindustry, Snowflake's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Snowflake's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Snowflake's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Snowflake's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Snowflake Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Snowflake's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $2.287.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Snowflake's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=2.287*11.5406
=26.39

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(26.39-158.13)/26.39
=-499.20 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Snowflake  (NYSE:SNOW) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Snowflake Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Snowflake's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Snowflake (Snowflake) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Address
106 East Babcock Street, Suite 3A, Bozeman, MT, USA, 59715
Founded in 2012, Snowflake is a data lake, warehousing, and sharing company that came public in 2020. To date, the company has over 3,000 customers, including nearly 30% of the Fortune 500 as its customers. Snowflake's data lake stores unstructured and semistructured data that can then be used in analytics to create insights stored in its data warehouse. Snowflake's data sharing capability allows enterprises to easily buy and ingest data almost instantaneously compared with a traditionally months-long process. Overall, the company is known for the fact that all of its data solutions that can be hosted on various public clouds.
Executives
Christian Kleinerman officer: SVP, Product Management 106 E. BABCOCK STREET, SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Christopher William Degnan officer: Chief Revenue Officer 450 CONCAR DRIVE, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Frank Slootman director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET, SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Grzegorz Czajkowski officer: SVP, Engineering and Support 106 E. BABCOCK STREET, SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Benoit Dageville director, 10 percent owner, officer: President of Products 450 CONCAR DRIVE, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Teresa Briggs director 2225 LAWSON LANE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Michael L Speiser director, 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Michael Scarpelli 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET, SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Mark D Mclaughlin director C/O PALO ALTO NETWORKS, INC., 4401 GREAT AMERICA PKWY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
John Dennis Mcmahon director C/O BLADELOGIC, INC., 10 MAGUIRE STREET, BUILDING 3, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Stephen B Burke director 41 CENTRAL PARK WEST - APT 11A, NEW YORK NY 10023
Jeremy Burton director C/O SNOWFLAKE INC., 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Mark Garrett director 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
Sequoia Grove Manager, Llc 10 percent owner SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Grove Ii, Llc 10 percent owner SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025