Johnson & Johnson (Johnson & Johnson) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $81.12 (As of Apr. 25, 2024)

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What is Johnson & Johnson Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-25), Johnson & Johnson's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $81.12.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Johnson & Johnson's Predictability Rank is 2-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Johnson & Johnson is -80.99%.

The industry rank for Johnson & Johnson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

JNJ's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
56.91% of 123 companies
in the Drug Manufacturers industry
Industry Median: 1.54 vs JNJ: 1.81

Johnson & Johnson Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Johnson & Johnson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Johnson & Johnson Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Johnson & Johnson Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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109.68

130.01

121.88

81.13

87.76

Johnson & Johnson Quarterly Data
	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															76.78	69.20	70.39	87.76	-

Competitive Comparison of Johnson & Johnson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Johnson & Johnson's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Johnson & Johnson's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Johnson & Johnson's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Johnson & Johnson's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Johnson & Johnson Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.70%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Johnson & Johnson's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 3.90%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $7.029.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Johnson & Johnson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

7.029

11.5406

81.12

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(81.12	-	146.82)	/	81.12
	=	-80.99 %

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Johnson & Johnson Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Johnson & Johnson's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Johnson & Johnson (Johnson & Johnson) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JNJ:Peru JNJ:Mexico JNJ_KZ:Kazakhstan 1JNJ:Italy JNJd:UK 0R34:UK JNJ0:Germany JNJ:Germany JNJ:Germany JNJ:Germany JNJ:Germany JNJ:Canada JNJB34:Brazil JNJ:Austria JNJ:Argentina

Address

One Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, 08933

Website

https://www.jnj.com

Johnson & Johnson is the world's largest and most diverse healthcare firm. Three divisions make up the firm: pharmaceutical, medical devices and diagnostics, and consumer. The drug and device groups represent close to 80% of sales and drive the majority of cash flows for the firm. The drug division focuses on the following therapeutic areas: immunology, oncology, neurology, pulmonary, cardiology, and metabolic diseases. The device segment focuses on orthopedics, surgery tools, vision care, and a few smaller areas. The last segment of consumer focuses on baby care, beauty, oral care, over-the-counter drugs, and women's health. The consumer group is being divested in 2023 under the new name Kenvue. Geographically, just over half of total revenue is generated in the United States.

Executives

Timothy Schmid	officer: EVP, WW Chair, MedTech	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
William Hait	officer: See Remarks	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Peter Fasolo	officer: VP, Worldwide Human Resources	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Kathryn E Wengel	officer: EVP, Chief GSC Officer	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
John C Reed	officer: EVP, Pharmaceuticals R&D	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, WHQ 2134, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
James D. Swanson	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Paula A Johnson	director	22 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, DANVERS MA 01923
Joseph J Wolk	officer: Exec VP, CFO	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Ashley Mcevoy	officer: EVP, WW Chair, Medical Devices	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Jennifer L Taubert	officer: EVP, WW Chair, Pharmaceuticals	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Robert J Decker	officer: Controller, CAO	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Thibaut Mongon	officer: Exec VP, WW Chair, Consumer	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Elizabeth Forminard	officer: Executive VP, General Counsel	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Darius Adamczyk	director	855 S. MINT STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Vanessa Broadhurst	officer: EVP, Global Corp Aff.	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933