Natural Alternatives International (Natural Alternatives International) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $8.86 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Natural Alternatives International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Natural Alternatives International's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $8.86.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Natural Alternatives International's Predictability Rank is 1.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Natural Alternatives International is 29.46%.

The industry rank for Natural Alternatives International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

NAII's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
60.85% of 212 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 1.035 vs NAII: 0.71

Natural Alternatives International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Natural Alternatives International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Natural Alternatives International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Natural Alternatives International Annual Data

Trend

Jun14

Jun15

Jun16

Jun17

Jun18

Jun19

Jun20

Jun21

Jun22

Jun23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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2.91

-30.42

-13.60

Natural Alternatives International Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-4.87	-21.16	-13.60	17.71	9.59

Competitive Comparison of Natural Alternatives International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Natural Alternatives International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Natural Alternatives International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Natural Alternatives International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Natural Alternatives International's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Natural Alternatives International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Natural Alternatives International's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was -105.80%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $0.768.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Natural Alternatives International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.768

11.5406

8.86

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(8.86	-	6.25)	/	8.86
	=	29.46 %

Natural Alternatives International (NAS:NAII) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Natural Alternatives International Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Natural Alternatives International (Natural Alternatives International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Natural Alternatives International Inc (NAS:NAII) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NA2:Germany

Address

1535 Faraday Avenue, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008

Website

https://www.nai-online.com

Natural Alternatives International Inc is engaged in formulating, manufacturing, and marketing nutritional supplements. It offers vitamins, minerals, herbs, and other supplements, as well as other healthcare products to customers within the United States and internationally. Its business activity is operated through Private-Label Contract Manufacturing and Patent & Trademark Licensing segment. The company derives the majority of revenue from Private-Label Contract Manufacturing which is engaged in providing manufacturing services to companies that market and distribute nutritional supplements and other healthcare products, whereas the Patent and Trademark Licensing segment includes royalty income from its license and supply agreements associated with the sale.

Executives

Mark A Ledoux	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO/Chairman	1185 LINDA VISTA DR, SAN MARCOS CA 92069
Joe E Davis	director	3436 CARIBETH DR, ENCINO CA 91436
Lee G Weldon	director	1185 LINDA VISTA DRIVE, SAN MARCAS CA 92069
Alan G Dunn	director	1185 LINDA VISTA DR., SUITE A, SAN MARCOS X1 92078
Michael E Fortin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1185 LINDA VISTA DRIVE, SAN MARCOS CA 92078
Kenneth Wolf	officer: Chief Financial Officer	12626 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 440, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Alan J Lane	director	41090 AVENIDA VERDE, TEMECULA CA 92591
Guru Ramanathan	director	C/O GNC HOLDINGS, INC., 300 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Laura Kay Matherly	director	1535 FARADAY AVENUE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Edward Borg	10 percent owner	600 SOUTH US HIGHWAY 1, APT. 609, JUPITER FL 33477
Alvin Mccurdy	officer: V.P. of Operations	1185 LINDA VISTA DR., SUITE A, SAN MARCOS CA 92078
Carl J Terranova	other: Member of 13(d) 10% group	159 CHRYSTIE ST, NEW YORK NY 10002
Thomas H Hansen	10 percent owner
John Dullea	officer: President, RHL (Subsidiary)	12189 CAMINITO CORRIENTE, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Randell Weaver	officer: President