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LCI Industries (LCI Industries) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $570.81 (As of Apr. 29, 2024)


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What is LCI Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-29), LCI Industries's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $570.81.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

LCI Industries's Predictability Rank is 3.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for LCI Industries is 81.20%.

The industry rank for LCI Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

LCII's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked better than
96.24% of 133 companies
in the Vehicles & Parts industry
Industry Median: 0.9 vs LCII: 0.19

LCI Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for LCI Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

LCI Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

LCI Industries Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 209.61 305.08 -121.44 636.20 628.53

LCI Industries Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 636.20 588.92 586.65 527.25 628.53

Competitive Comparison of LCI Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, LCI Industries's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


LCI Industries's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, LCI Industries's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where LCI Industries's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



LCI Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.62%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> LCI Industries's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 38.40%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $18.266.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

LCI Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.11) = 1.0810810810811
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=18.266*31.2501
=570.81

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(570.81-107.32)/570.81
=81.20 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


LCI Industries  (NYSE:LCII) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


LCI Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of LCI Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


LCI Industries (LCI Industries) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3501 County Road 6 East, Elkhart, IN, USA, 46514
LCI Industries Inc supplies domestically and internationally components for the original equipment manufacturers of recreational vehicles and adjacent industries including buses; trailers used to haul boats, livestock, equipment and other cargo. It has two reportable segments the original equipment manufacturers segment and the aftermarket segment. The OEM Segment manufactures or distributes components for the OEMs of RVs and adjacent industries, including buses; trailers used to haul boats, livestock, equipment and other cargo; trucks; pontoon boats; trains; manufactured homes; and modular housing. Its products are sold primarily to major manufacturers of RVs such as Thor Industries, Forest River, Winnebago and other RV OEMs, and to manufacturers in adjacent industries.
Executives
Brendan Deely director USG CORPORATION, 125 SOUTH FRANKLIN STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Linda Kristine Myers director 3556 LAKE SHORE ROAD, P.O. BOX 2028, BUFFALO NY 14219
Stephanie K. Mains director C/O GATES INDUSTRIAL CORPORATION PLC, 1144 FIFTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1400, DENVER CO 80202
Lillian Etzkorn officer: EVP & CFO 1570 FOREST LANE, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48301
Eileen S Pruitt officer: Deputy CHRO C/O LCI INDUSTRIES, 3501 COUNTRY ROAD 6 EAST, ELKHART IN 46514
Nick C Fletcher officer: CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER 3305 HIDDEN SPRINGS LANE, PROSPECT KY 40059
James Gero director C/O ORTHOFIX INTERNATIONAL, 3451 PLANO PARKWAY, LEWISVILLE TX 75056
Kieran M O'sullivan director 2375 CABOT DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Jamie Schnur officer: Chief Administrative Officer C/O LIPPERT COMPONENTS, 2703 COLLEGE AVENUE, GOSHEN IN 46526
Jason Lippert director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O LIPPERT COMPONENTS INC, 2375 TAMIAMI TRAIL NORTH STE 11, NAPLES FL 34103
Ryan Richard Smith officer: Group President - N.A. C/O LCI INDUSTRIES, 3501 COUNTY ROAD 6 EAST, ELKHART IN 46514
David A Reed director TEXAS INDUSTRIES INC, 1341 W MOCKINGBIRD LN, DALLAS TX 75247
Ronald Fenech director 419 WEST PIKE STREET, JACKSON CENTER OH 45334
John A. Sirpilla director C/O LCI INDUSTRIES, 3501, ELKHART IN 46514
Scott T Mereness officer: President C/O LIPPERT COMPONENTS, INC., 2766 COLLEGE AVENUE, GOSHEN IN 46528

LCI Industries (LCI Industries) Headlines