Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-41.35 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-41.35.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP is N/A.

The industry rank for Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CLMT's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Oil & Gas industry.
Industry Median: 0.995
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-3.583.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

-3.583

11.5406

-41.35

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(-41.35	-	15.52)	/	-41.35
	=	N/A

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (NAS:CLMT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (NAS:CLMT) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2780 Waterfront Parkway East Drive, Suite 200, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46214

Website

https://www.calumetspecialty.com

Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP is an independent producer of specialty hydrocarbon products in North America. The company operates through three segments namely Specialty Products and Solutions segment manufacture and market solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatum's, gels, esters, and other products. In Performance Brands segment, the company blend, package and market high performance products through its Royal Purple, Bel-Ray, and TruFuel brands. The Montana/Renewables segment is comprised of two businesses - renewable diesel and specialty asphalt. The Corporate segment primarily consists of general and administrative expenses not allocated to the Specialty Products and Solutions, Performance Brands or Montana/Renewables segments.

Executives

Stephen P Mawer	director	2780 WATERFRONT PKWY E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
John G. Boss	director	260 HUDSON RIVER ROAD, WATERFORD NY 12188
Ryan Willman	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2780 WATERFRONT PKWY E. DR., STE. 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Scott Obermeier	officer: EVP - Commercial	2780 WATERFRONT PARKWAY, E. DRIVE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Daniel J Sajkowski	director	5400 WEST 86TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46268
James S Carter	director	2780 WATERFRONT PKWY. E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANPOLIS IN 46214
Louis Todd Borgmann	officer: SVP and Interim CFO	2780 WATERFRONT PARKWAY, E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Karen A. Twitchell	director	9 COURTLANDT PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77006
Marc Lawn	officer: EVP - Performance Brands	2780 WATERFRONT PKWY E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Paul C Raymond	director	HERCULES PLAZA, 1313 N MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19894
Vincent Donargo	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE CELADON DRIVE, 9503 E. 33RD STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46235
H. Keith Jennings	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2000 ST. JAMES PLACE, HOUSTON TX 77056
A Anderson William	officer: VP - Sales and Marketing	2780 WATERFRONT PARKWAY E. DRIVE,, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214
Daniel L Sheets	director	29400 LAKELAND BOULEVARD, WICKLIFFE OH 44092
David West Griffin	officer: EVP and CFO	2780 WATERFRONT PARKWAY E. DRIVE, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46214