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Advanced Energy Industries (Advanced Energy Industries) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $95.20 (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is Advanced Energy Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Advanced Energy Industries's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $95.20.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Advanced Energy Industries's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Advanced Energy Industries is -0.80%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Advanced Energy Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

AEIS' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.45   Med: 0.75   Max: 1.05
Current: 1.01

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Advanced Energy Industries was 1.05. The lowest was 0.45. And the median was 0.75.

AEIS's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
50.68% of 442 companies
in the Industrial Products industry
Industry Median: 0.99 vs AEIS: 1.01

Advanced Energy Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Advanced Energy Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Advanced Energy Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Advanced Energy Industries Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - 188.65 104.06

Advanced Energy Industries Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 188.65 188.65 179.08 140.83 104.06

Competitive Comparison of Advanced Energy Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Electrical Equipment & Parts subindustry, Advanced Energy Industries's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Advanced Energy Industries's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Industrial Products Industry

For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Advanced Energy Industries's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Advanced Energy Industries's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Advanced Energy Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 13.00%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Advanced Energy Industries's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 13.00%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 13.00%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $4.870.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Advanced Energy Industries's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.13)/(1+0.11) = 1.018018018018
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=4.870*19.5488
=95.20

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(95.2-95.96)/95.2
=-0.80 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Advanced Energy Industries  (NAS:AEIS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Advanced Energy Industries Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Advanced Energy Industries (Advanced Energy Industries) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1595 Wynkoop Street, Suite 800, Denver, CO, USA, 80202
Advanced Energy Industries Inc provides precision power-conversion measurement and control solutions that transform power into various forms for use in manufacturing and industrial equipment and applications. The firm serves original equipment manufacturers and end customers in the semiconductor, flat panel display, solar panel, and other industrial capital equipment markets. Products include thin-film power-conversion systems, which control and modify raw electrical power into a customizable, predictable power source, and power control modules, which control and measure temperature during manufacturing cycles. A majority of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, with the rest primarily from Asia and Europe.
Executives
Anne Delsanto director 1133 INNOVATION WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Ronald C Foster director 8000 S FEDERAL WAY, MS 1-557, BOISE ID 83716
Paul R Oldham officer: EVP, CFO 1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525
Lanesha Minnix director TWO LAKESIDE COMMONS, BUILDING TWO, 980 HAMMOND DRIVE, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Tina Donikowski director 1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525
John Donaghey officer: EVP, Global Sales 1595 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202
Brian Shirley director 8000 S FEDERAL WAY, MS 1-557, BOISE ID 83716
Elizabeth Karpinski Vonne officer: EVP, General Counsel 1595 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202
Eduardo Bernal Acebedo officer: EVP and COO 1595 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202
Reed David director 6501 WILLIAM CANNON DRIVE WEST, AUSTIN TX 78735
Stephen Douglas Kelley officer: President and CEO 1900 S. PRICE ROAD, CHANDLER AZ 85286
Yuval Wasserman officer: EVP, Sales, Service & Mktg 1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525
Dana Edward Huth officer: CHIEF REVENUE OFFICER 1595 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202
Thomas O Mcgimpsey officer: EVP Gen Counsel & Corp Sec 380 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Neil David Brinker officer: EVP, COO 1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525