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Shell (SHEL) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share : $5.99 (As of Dec. 2023)


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What is Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Shell's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Dec. 2023 was $1.692. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is $5.99 for the trailing ten years ended in Dec. 2023.

During the past 12 months, Shell's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 22.50% per year. During the past 3 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 22.90% per year. During the past 5 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 22.40% per year. During the past 10 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 14.10% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

During the past 13 years, the highest 3-Year average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate of Shell was 26.00% per year. The lowest was -5.20% per year. And the median was 20.60% per year.

As of today (2024-04-27), Shell's current stock price is $73.27. Shell's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Dec. 2023 was $5.99. Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 12.23.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Shell was 46.83. The lowest was 7.53. And the median was 25.40.


Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

The historical data trend for Shell's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Shell Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.85 3.41 3.85 4.68 5.99

Shell Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.68 4.94 5.39 5.36 5.99

Competitive Comparison of Shell's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.



Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Shell's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Dec. 2023 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Dec. 2023 (Change)*Current CPI (Dec. 2023)
=1.692/130.0000*130.0000
=1.692

Current CPI (Dec. 2023) = 130.0000.

Shell Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201403 2.171 99.300 2.842
201406 0.232 99.800 0.302
201409 1.588 100.000 2.064
201412 0.247 99.900 0.321
201503 0.279 99.600 0.364
201506 -0.049 100.100 -0.064
201509 1.507 100.200 1.955
201512 -0.585 100.400 -0.757
201603 -1.290 100.400 -1.670
201606 -0.870 101.000 -1.120
201609 0.792 101.500 1.014
201612 0.846 102.200 1.076
201703 1.265 102.700 1.601
201706 1.357 103.500 1.704
201709 0.616 104.300 0.768
201712 0.338 105.000 0.418
201803 1.118 105.100 1.383
201806 1.009 105.900 1.239
201809 1.507 106.600 1.838
201812 3.589 107.100 4.356
201903 0.855 107.000 1.039
201906 1.443 107.900 1.739
201909 1.552 108.400 1.861
201912 0.894 108.500 1.071
202003 2.708 108.600 3.242
202006 -0.224 108.800 -0.268
202009 1.719 109.200 2.046
202012 0.278 109.400 0.330
202103 1.126 109.700 1.334
202106 2.140 111.400 2.497
202109 2.927 112.400 3.385
202112 0.499 114.700 0.566
202203 2.761 116.500 3.081
202206 3.186 120.500 3.437
202209 1.981 122.300 2.106
202212 4.488 125.300 4.656
202303 2.291 126.800 2.349
202306 3.068 129.400 3.082
202309 2.100 130.100 2.098
202312 1.692 130.000 1.692

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.


Shell  (NYSE:SHEL) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Shell's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=73.27/5.99
=12.23

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Shell was 46.83. The lowest was 7.53. And the median was 25.40.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Shell Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shell's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Shell (SHEL) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Shell PLC (NYSE:SHEL) » Definitions » Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Address
Shell Centre, London, GBR, SE1 7NA
Shell is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil around the world. In 2022, it produced 1.5 million barrels of liquids and 7.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At year-end 2022, reserves stood at 9.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 50% of which consisted of liquids. Its production and reserves are in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, and North and South America. The company operates refineries with capacity of 1.7 mmb/d located in the Americas, Asia, Africa, and Europe and sells 12 million tons per year of chemicals. Its largest chemical plants, often integrated with its local refineries, are in Central Europe, China, Singapore, and North America.

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