What is Warrior Met Coal Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Warrior Met Coal's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Warrior Met Coal's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Coking Coal subindustry, Warrior Met Coal's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Warrior Met Coal's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Steel Industry
For the Steel industry and Basic Materials sector, Warrior Met Coal's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Warrior Met Coal's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Warrior Met Coal Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -9.58 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.01% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Warrior Met Coal (Warrior Met Coal) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
16243 Highway 216, Brookwood, AL, USA, 35444
Warrior Met Coal Inc is a U.S based company. It produces and exports of met coal that operates two underground mines in Alabama. The company sells to steels manufacturers in Europe, Asia, and South America. Its mining operations consist of two underground met coal mines in Southern Appalachia's coal seam and other surface met and thermal coal mines.
Executives
| Stephen D. Williams |
director |
C/O WARRIOR MET COAL, LLC, 16243 HIGHWAY 216, BROOK AL 35444 |
| Brian M Chopin |
officer: See Remarks |
3000 RIVERCHASE GALLERIA, SUITE #1700, BIRMINGHAM AL 35244 |
| Lisa M. Schnorr |
director |
C/O GRAHAM CORPORATION, 20 FLORENCE AVENUE, BATAVIA NY 14020 |
| Jack K. Richardson |
officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER |
C/O WARRIOR MET COAL, LLC, 16243 HIGHWAY 216, BROOKWOOD AL 35444 |
| Walter J Scheller |
director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
16243 HIGHWAY 216, BIRMINGHAM AL 35444 |
| Kelli K. Gant |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O WARRIOR MET COAL, LLC, 16243 HIGHWAY 216, BROOKWOOD AL 35444 |
| Charles Lussier |
officer: Senior VP - Sales & Marketing |
16243 HIGHWAY 216, BROOKWOOD AL 35444 |
| Dale W Boyles |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105 |
| Ana B Amicarella |
director |
1915 SNAPPS FERRY ROAD, BUILDING N, GREENEVILLE TN 37745 |
| Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Apollo Svf Management, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
TWO MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577 |
| Apollo Special Opportunities Managed Account Lp |
10 percent owner |
ONE MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 201, PURCHASE NY 10577 |
| Apollo Svf Management Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Steamboat Credit Opportunities Intermediate Fund Lp |
10 percent owner |
C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Apollo Advisors Viii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
ONE MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 201, PURCHASE NY 10577 |
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